Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Florida Atlantic 27.8, Florida International 27.8 at Flagler Credit Union Stadium in Week 3. That is a genuine toss-up: Florida Atlantic wins about 50% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0 points and 55.6 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Florida International is 1-1, scoring 21 and allowing 19.5 points per game (+1.5 per game). Florida Atlantic is 1-1, scoring 29.5 and allowing 48 points per game (-18.5 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Florida International's below-average offense (115th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 21.6 points against an average defense) against Florida Atlantic's struggling defense (137th). Florida Atlantic's middle-of-the-pack offense (71st of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 26.1 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Florida International's below-average defense (90th); that mismatch is where most of Florida Atlantic's projected points come from.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Florida International by 23 and Florida Atlantic by 23 about 80% of the time.
Florida Atlantic gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Florida International would be favoured by 2.1. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Florida International 10, Florida Atlantic 16. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 6 points and the total by 29.6.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Florida International / Florida Atlantic) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Florida Atlantic -7.25 → Florida Atlantic -5.25 | 62.5 → 62.25 | +197.5 / -240 |
| Bovada | Florida Atlantic -7 → Florida Atlantic -5 | 62.5 → 62 | +225 / -275 |
| DraftKings | Florida Atlantic -7.5 → Florida Atlantic -5.5 | 62.5 | +170 / -205 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Florida Atlantic win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Pick'em | 55.6 | 50% |
| Market consensus | Florida Atlantic -5.5 | 62.3 | 67% |
| Blended projection | Florida Atlantic -4.5 | 61.7 | 62% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Florida Atlantic win probability
- model 50% · market (no-vig) 67% · difference -18 pts
- Margin
- model Pick'em · market Florida Atlantic -5.25 · difference -5.2 pts (Florida Atlantic view)
- Total
- model 55.6 · market 62.25 · difference -6.6
Model margin is 5.2 pts more toward Florida International than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Florida International 27.8, Florida Atlantic 27.8 | Florida Atlantic 50%wrong winner | 6.0 | 29.6 |
| New formula | Florida International 30.0, Florida Atlantic 31.7 | Florida Atlantic 54%right winner | 4.3 | 35.7 |
Final: Florida International 10, Florida Atlantic 16. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Florida International vs Florida Atlantic: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Florida International | Florida Atlantic |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 21.0#112 | 29.5#79 |
| Points allowed per game | 19.5#66 | 48.0#137 |
| Yards per play | 6.15#75 | 5.38#113 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.36#26 | 8.11#135 |
| Rushing yards per game | 115.0#125 | 122.0#117 |
| Net passing yards per game | 355.5#6 | 321.5#15 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 92.0#23 | 258.0#136 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 178.5#56 | 241.0#102 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00#100 | 1.00#97 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.50#42 | 1.00#79 |
| Sacks per game | 2.00#74 | 1.50#98 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 0.50#31 | 2.50#114 |
| Stat | Florida International | Florida Atlantic |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.04#98 | +0.13#47 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.12#18 | +0.31#134 |
| Success rate | 38.6%#106 | 43.2%#71 |
| Success rate allowed | 33.1%#17 | 44.6%#112 |
| Explosive play rate | 14.4%#41 | 6.4%#135 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 6.5%#7 | 18.1%#137 |
| Havoc rate | 14.5%#65 | 19.3%#12 |
| Havoc allowed | 11.1%#39 | 16.0%#112 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.00#129 | 3.83#98 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.60#57 | 5.91#136 |
| Average starting field position | own 30#85 | own 34#35 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 32#108 | own 29#80 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 76.5#14 | 82.5#4 |
| Stat | Florida International | Florida Atlantic |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.16#129 | +0.06#77 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.18#43 | +0.19#41 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.24#6 | +0.51#138 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.00#63 | +0.04#77 |
| Rushing success rate | 29.7%#133 | 35.8%#118 |
| Passing success rate | 44.9%#64 | 48.6%#45 |
| Run stuff rate | 23.4%#126 | 15.1%#37 |
| Passing-down success rate | 29.1%#94 | 40.0%#18 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 21.2%#20 | 19.2%#13 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 41.2%#76 | 52.8%#29 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 29.0%#31 | 40.0%#89 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 50.0%#116 | 62.5%#81 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 25.0%#11 | 100.0%#133 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Florida International schedule · Florida Atlantic schedule · all Week 3 projections
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