Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Florida Atlantic 31.6, UL Monroe 29.6 at Malone Stadium in Week 4. That is a genuine toss-up: Florida Atlantic wins about 55% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2 points and 61.2 combined points. Tags: coin flip, leans high scoring.
Florida Atlantic is 2-1, scoring 25 and allowing 35.3 points per game (-10.3 per game). UL Monroe is 0-3, scoring 22.7 and allowing 42 points per game (-19.3 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Florida Atlantic's below-average offense (100th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 23.4 points against an average defense) against UL Monroe's struggling defense (135th). UL Monroe's struggling offense (129th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 19.5 points against an average defense) meets Florida Atlantic's struggling defense (133rd) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points UL Monroe puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Florida Atlantic by 25 and UL Monroe by 21 about 80% of the time.
UL Monroe gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Florida Atlantic is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Florida Atlantic 45, UL Monroe 17. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 26 points and the total by 0.8.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Florida Atlantic / UL Monroe) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Florida Atlantic -13.5 → Florida Atlantic -11.5 | 58.25 | -535 / +390 |
| DraftKings | Florida Atlantic -13.5 → Florida Atlantic -11.5 | 59.5 → 58.5 | -485 / +370 |
| Bovada | Florida Atlantic -13.5 → Florida Atlantic -11.5 | 57 → 58 | -585 / +410 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | UL Monroe win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Florida Atlantic -2 | 61.2 | 45% |
| Market consensus | Florida Atlantic -11.5 | 58.3 | 20% |
| Blended projection | Florida Atlantic -10 | 58.6 | 25% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- UL Monroe win probability
- model 45% · market (no-vig) 20% · difference +25 pts
- Margin
- model Florida Atlantic -2 · market Florida Atlantic -11.5 · difference +9.5 pts (UL Monroe view)
- Total
- model 61.2 · market 58.25 · difference +3.0
Model margin is 9.5 pts more toward UL Monroe than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Florida Atlantic 31.6, UL Monroe 29.6 | Florida Atlantic 55%right winner | 26.0 | 0.8 |
| New formula | Florida Atlantic 30.5, UL Monroe 29.9 | Florida Atlantic 51%right winner | 27.5 | 1.6 |
Final: Florida Atlantic 45, UL Monroe 17. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Florida Atlantic vs UL Monroe: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Florida Atlantic | UL Monroe |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 25.0#103 | 22.7#113 |
| Points allowed per game | 35.3#124 | 42.0#135 |
| Yards per play | 4.94#128 | 4.52#135 |
| Yards per play allowed | 7.03#125 | 7.15#128 |
| Rushing yards per game | 108.0#132 | 188.7#53 |
| Net passing yards per game | 273.7#38 | 128.0#130 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 206.7#125 | 250.0#136 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 261.7#122 | 229.3#98 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.67#72 | 1.33#120 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.67#22 | 0.33#129 |
| Sacks per game | 1.33#104 | 1.33#108 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.67#120 | 2.67#123 |
| Stat | Florida Atlantic | UL Monroe |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.05#89 | -0.03#117 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.09#99 | +0.25#131 |
| Success rate | 41.7%#92 | 44.5%#61 |
| Success rate allowed | 40.0%#67 | 51.7%#137 |
| Explosive play rate | 5.2%#138 | 11.6%#103 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 15.0%#123 | 15.7%#126 |
| Havoc rate | 16.9%#23 | 13.4%#83 |
| Havoc allowed | 15.1%#108 | 16.8%#129 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.44#122 | 3.81#99 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.69#119 | 4.55#114 |
| Average starting field position | own 36#14 | own 28#110 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 28#59 | own 31#100 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 77.3#6 | 70.0#31 |
| Stat | Florida Atlantic | UL Monroe |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.04#92 | +0.21#14 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.06#84 | -0.26#136 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.28#137 | +0.22#134 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.12#25 | +0.29#125 |
| Rushing success rate | 34.6%#127 | 50.6%#26 |
| Passing success rate | 46.8%#47 | 38.4%#102 |
| Run stuff rate | 13.9%#29 | 12.8%#18 |
| Passing-down success rate | 37.1%#30 | 32.0%#68 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 26.8%#52 | 42.9%#133 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 48.1%#40 | 34.1%#123 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 45.0%#110 | 52.5%#132 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 50.0%#122 | 62.5%#86 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 76.9%#119 | 60.0%#75 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Florida Atlantic schedule · UL Monroe schedule · all Week 4 projections
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