Matchup analysis
Our model projects East Carolina 36, Florida Atlantic 27 at Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium in Week 13. That is a solid edge: East Carolina wins about 72% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 9.1 points and 63.3 combined points. Tags: leans high scoring.
Florida Atlantic is 5-2 against the 120th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 37.3 and allowing 34 points per game (+3.3 per game). East Carolina is 3-4 against the 95th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 25 and allowing 26.3 points per game (-1.3 per game).
Florida Atlantic's middle-of-the-pack offense (55th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 28.1 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over East Carolina's middle-of-the-pack defense (74th); that mismatch is where most of Florida Atlantic's projected points come from. The most lopsided unit battle: East Carolina's below-average offense (93rd of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 24.3 points against an average defense) against Florida Atlantic's struggling defense (135th).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Florida Atlantic by 13 and East Carolina by 32 about 80% of the time.
East Carolina gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour East Carolina by about 7.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Florida Atlantic vs East Carolina: stat comparison
| Stat | Florida Atlantic | East Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 37.3#17 | 25.0#94 |
| Points allowed per game | 34.0#130 | 26.3#94 |
| Yards per play | 5.64#102 | 5.50#111 |
| Yards per play allowed | 7.09#135 | 5.12#34 |
| Rushing yards per game | 137.3#113 | 160.6#83 |
| Net passing yards per game | 289.1#12 | 202.7#94 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 264.0#137 | 159.4#78 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 187.0#42 | 202.1#58 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.43#22 | 1.14#110 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.86#77 | 0.86#81 |
| Sacks per game | 1.14#126 | 2.57#33 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.86#75 | 2.29#104 |
| Stat | Florida Atlantic | East Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.17#34 | +0.01#109 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.17#123 | -0.07#20 |
| Success rate | 46.8%#33 | 38.6%#122 |
| Success rate allowed | 41.9%#82 | 36.1%#22 |
| Explosive play rate | 9.9%#130 | 12.3%#77 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.7%#128 | 13.1%#102 |
| Havoc rate | 13.1%#92 | 16.3%#20 |
| Havoc allowed | 12.9%#58 | 13.2%#69 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.11#70 | 3.41#119 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.86#75 | 3.89#77 |
| Average starting field position | own 32#32 | own 30#65 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 27#38 | own 30#98 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 75.6#4 | 66.0#69 |
| Stat | Florida Atlantic | East Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.13#43 | +0.00#111 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.20#35 | +0.02#98 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.25#136 | -0.07#22 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.05#69 | -0.07#30 |
| Rushing success rate | 44.2%#73 | 37.7%#121 |
| Passing success rate | 51.7%#13 | 37.6%#112 |
| Run stuff rate | 16.2%#55 | 17.7%#82 |
| Passing-down success rate | 36.5%#25 | 25.9%#120 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 30.6%#78 | 30.4%#76 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 52.7%#12 | 33.7%#122 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 39.8%#85 | 35.2%#36 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 65.2%#56 | 44.8%#132 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 69.6%#120 | 56.7%#53 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Florida Atlantic schedule · East Carolina schedule · all Week 13 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.