Matchup analysis
Our model projects Georgia 37, Florida 24 on a neutral field at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Week 9. That is a solid edge: Georgia wins about 80% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 12.6 points and 61 combined points. Tags: leans high scoring.
Florida (No. 17) is 5-2 against the 12th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 39.6 and allowing 28.3 points per game (+11.3 per game). Georgia (No. 3) is 6-1 against the 52nd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 43 and allowing 15.9 points per game (+27.1 per game).
Florida's elite offense (13th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 34.7 points against an average defense) meets Georgia's elite defense (7th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Florida puts up. Georgia's elite offense (3rd of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 40.4 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Florida's middle-of-the-pack defense (43rd); that mismatch is where most of Georgia's projected points come from.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Florida by 10 and Georgia by 35 about 80% of the time.
Neutral site, so no home-field points either way. The game is on ABC.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Florida / Georgia) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Georgia -11.5 | 55.75 | +350 / -450 |
| DraftKings | Georgia -11.5 | 55.5 | +340 / -440 |
| Hard Rock Bet | Georgia -11.5 | 56.5 | +375 / -525 |
| FanDuel | Georgia -11.5 | 55.5 | +365 / -490 |
| BetRivers | Georgia -11 | 56 | +375 / -530 |
| theScore Bet | Georgia -11.5 | 55.5 | +340 / -450 |
| BetMGM | Georgia -11.5 | 55.5 | +360 / -450 |
| Pinnacle | Georgia -11.5 | 56.5 | +336 / -438 |
| Bovada | Georgia -12 | 56 | +330 / -440 |
This game's lines: The Odds API · read Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Georgia win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Georgia -12.5 | 61.0 | 80% |
| Market consensus | Georgia -11.5 | 55.8 | 79% |
| Blended projection | Georgia -11.5 | 56.4 | 79% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Georgia win probability
- model 80% · market (no-vig) 79% · difference +1 pts
- Margin
- model Georgia -12.6 · market Georgia -11.5 · difference +1.1 pts (Georgia view)
- Total
- model 61.0 · market 55.75 · difference +5.3
Prediction exchange (Kalshi) price implies Georgia 79%.
Model margin is 1.1 pts more toward Georgia than the market.
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Florida vs Georgia: stat comparison
| Stat | Florida | Georgia |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 39.6#9 | 43.0#3 |
| Points allowed per game | 28.3#106 | 15.9#16 |
| Yards per play | 6.38#41 | 7.69#3 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.70#76 | 4.65#10 |
| Rushing yards per game | 203.0#30 | 202.1#31 |
| Net passing yards per game | 249.7#45 | 255.7#39 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 137.0#45 | 116.0#19 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 241.0#111 | 177.7#24 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.71#43 | 0.57#29 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.86#66 | 1.14#33 |
| Sacks per game | 3.14#8 | 3.00#10 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.43#44 | 1.14#22 |
| Stat | Florida | Georgia |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.21#16 | +0.24#7 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.14#118 | -0.05#25 |
| Success rate | 45.7%#40 | 53.4%#1 |
| Success rate allowed | 44.5%#110 | 34.4%#7 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.4%#55 | 17.3%#5 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.1%#54 | 9.7%#17 |
| Havoc rate | 15.5%#31 | 15.9%#25 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.2%#66 | 10.6%#18 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 5.02#8 | 5.22#2 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.70#128 | 3.73#59 |
| Average starting field position | own 31#48 | own 31#40 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 28#52 | own 28#41 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 71.0#14 | 59.6#122 |
| Stat | Florida | Georgia |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.09#60 | +0.19#13 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.36#8 | +0.30#15 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.12#116 | -0.07#23 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.16#106 | -0.04#37 |
| Rushing success rate | 43.2%#81 | 52.8%#2 |
| Passing success rate | 48.9%#21 | 54.5%#4 |
| Run stuff rate | 18.2%#87 | 14.2%#20 |
| Passing-down success rate | 31.9%#62 | 39.4%#12 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 35.4%#122 | 23.2%#6 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 45.7%#33 | 56.9%#3 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 44.1%#118 | 39.0%#73 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 78.1%#6 | 83.3%#2 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 65.2%#95 | 72.9%#128 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Florida schedule · Georgia schedule · all Week 9 projections
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