Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Florida 30.4, Missouri 27.2 at Memorial Stadium in Week 5. That is a lean: Florida wins about 58% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3.2 points and 57.6 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Florida (No. 8) is 4-0, scoring 53.5 and allowing 22.8 points per game (+30.7 per game). Missouri (No. 25) is 3-1, scoring 35.8 and allowing 20.8 points per game (+15 per game).
Florida's elite offense (8th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 37 points against an average defense) meets Missouri's strong defense (17th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Florida puts up. Missouri's strong offense (37th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 30.8 points against an average defense) meets Florida's strong defense (31st) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Missouri puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Florida by 26 and Missouri by 19 about 80% of the time.
Missouri gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Florida is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ABC.
Result: Florida 17, Missouri 45. Missouri won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 31.2 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Florida / Missouri) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Florida -3.25 → Florida -5.5 | 55 → 57.75 | -214 / +177.5 |
| DraftKings | Florida -2.5 → Florida -5.5 | 53.5 → 57.5 | -218 / +180 |
| Bovada | Florida -4 → Florida -5.5 | 56.5 → 58 | -210 / +175 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Missouri win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Florida -3 | 57.6 | 42% |
| Market consensus | Florida -5.5 | 57.8 | 35% |
| Blended projection | Florida -5 | 57.9 | 36% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Missouri win probability
- model 42% · market (no-vig) 35% · difference +7 pts
- Margin
- model Florida -3.2 · market Florida -5.5 · difference +2.3 pts (Missouri view)
- Total
- model 57.6 · market 57.75 · difference -0.1
Model margin is 2.3 pts more toward Missouri than the market.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Florida 30.4, Missouri 27.2 | Florida 58%wrong winner | 31.2 | 4.4 |
| New formula | Florida 30.2, Missouri 27.7 | Florida 57%wrong winner | 30.5 | 4.1 |
Final: Florida 17, Missouri 45. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Florida vs Missouri: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Florida | Missouri |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 53.5#2 | 35.8#43 |
| Points allowed per game | 22.8#69 | 20.8#52 |
| Yards per play | 7.63#8 | 6.25#66 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.12#48 | 5.26#61 |
| Rushing yards per game | 261.0#11 | 160.5#88 |
| Net passing yards per game | 271.5#35 | 257.0#46 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 119.8#33 | 133.5#57 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 233.5#102 | 215.3#83 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.75#54 | 0.25#7 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.25#28 | 1.25#29 |
| Sacks per game | 3.00#15 | 3.00#16 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 0.75#12 | 0.75#13 |
| Stat | Florida | Missouri |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.37#1 | +0.15#49 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.14#113 | -0.06#27 |
| Success rate | 53.7%#2 | 41.9%#85 |
| Success rate allowed | 43.5%#99 | 34.2%#14 |
| Explosive play rate | 16.1%#17 | 13.1%#72 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.0%#30 | 10.5%#47 |
| Havoc rate | 15.3%#47 | 19.8%#2 |
| Havoc allowed | 9.6%#14 | 15.3%#110 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 5.73#1 | 3.87#93 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.33#105 | 3.67#61 |
| Average starting field position | own 33#29 | own 39#2 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 28#67 | own 24#8 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 69.8#33 | 66.8#60 |
| Stat | Florida | Missouri |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.24#6 | -0.09#128 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.59#1 | +0.40#8 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.28#136 | -0.04#39 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.06#84 | -0.08#32 |
| Rushing success rate | 50.7%#22 | 36.4%#120 |
| Passing success rate | 58.8%#4 | 47.8%#39 |
| Run stuff rate | 13.3%#26 | 16.9%#74 |
| Passing-down success rate | 40.4%#10 | 33.3%#55 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 37.5%#123 | 26.6%#49 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 50.0%#22 | 41.5%#73 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 41.3%#96 | 33.3%#35 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 83.3%#5 | 50.0%#114 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 60.0%#81 | 55.6%#58 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Florida schedule · Missouri schedule · all Week 5 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.