Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Auburn 29.1, Florida 25.8 at Jordan-Hare Stadium in Week 3. That is a lean: Auburn wins about 59% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3.3 points and 54.8 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Florida is 2-0, scoring 59 and allowing 12 points per game (+47 per game). Auburn is 2-0, scoring 30 and allowing 12 points per game (+18 per game).
Florida's strong offense (21st of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 33.6 points against an average defense) meets Auburn's strong defense (23rd) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Florida puts up. Expect Auburn to find it hard going: Florida's strong defense (22nd) outranks Auburn's middle-of-the-pack offense (53rd of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 27.8 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Florida by 19 and Auburn by 26 about 80% of the time.
Auburn gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Auburn by about 1.2. The game is on ESPN.
Result: Florida 44, Auburn 39. Florida won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 8.3 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Florida / Auburn) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Florida -0.5 → Florida -2.5 | 53.25 | -135 / +114.5 |
| DraftKings | Auburn -1.5 → Florida -2.5 | 53.5 | -135 / +114 |
| Bovada | Florida -2.5 | 53 | -135 / +115 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Auburn win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Auburn -3.5 | 54.8 | 59% |
| Market consensus | Florida -2.5 | 53.3 | 45% |
| Blended projection | Florida -1.5 | 53.9 | 46% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Auburn win probability
- model 59% · market (no-vig) 45% · difference +14 pts
- Margin
- model Auburn -3.3 · market Florida -2.5 · difference +5.8 pts (Auburn view)
- Total
- model 54.8 · market 53.25 · difference +1.5
Model margin is 5.8 pts more toward Auburn than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Florida 25.8, Auburn 29.1 | Auburn 59%wrong winner | 8.3 | 28.2 |
| New formula | Florida 25.5, Auburn 25.0 | Florida 51%right winner | 4.5 | 32.6 |
Final: Florida 44, Auburn 39. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Florida vs Auburn: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Florida | Auburn |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 59.0#3 | 30.0#75 |
| Points allowed per game | 12.0#23 | 12.0#22 |
| Yards per play | 8.80#5 | 6.20#72 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.05#17 | 4.64#37 |
| Rushing yards per game | 248.0#20 | 238.5#26 |
| Net passing yards per game | 319.5#17 | 248.0#55 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 103.5#36 | 96.5#27 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 200.0#70 | 258.5#116 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00#78 | 1.50#108 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00#50 | 1.50#22 |
| Sacks per game | 2.00#53 | 2.00#52 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 0.50#9 | 3.00#121 |
| Stat | Florida | Auburn |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.20#16 | +0.06#85 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.06#91 | -0.05#39 |
| Success rate | 48.3%#22 | 44.7%#55 |
| Success rate allowed | 40.2%#69 | 39.1%#52 |
| Explosive play rate | 15.2%#26 | 14.9%#31 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.9%#54 | 6.5%#5 |
| Havoc rate | 14.0%#72 | 17.4%#25 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.6%#74 | 14.2%#91 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.90#23 | 3.20#121 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.80#69 | 3.00#18 |
| Average starting field position | own 30#90 | own 30#86 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 29#76 | own 22#7 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 64.5#84 | 78.5#8 |
| Stat | Florida | Auburn |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.12#44 | +0.09#56 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.30#22 | +0.02#93 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.15#118 | -0.20#11 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.00#59 | +0.06#84 |
| Rushing success rate | 60.0%#9 | 47.2%#56 |
| Passing success rate | 66.7%#5 | 42.0%#76 |
| Run stuff rate | 14.5%#30 | 16.9%#65 |
| Passing-down success rate | 30.1%#83 | 32.6%#57 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 33.0%#104 | 31.6%#94 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 44.4%#62 | 50.0%#34 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 41.0%#92 | 35.3%#61 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 71.3%#41 | 62.5%#77 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 55.8%#59 | 60.0%#70 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Florida schedule · Auburn schedule · all Week 3 projections
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