Matchup analysis
Our model projects Florida 31, Florida State 31 at Doak Campbell Stadium in Week 13. That is a genuine toss-up: Florida wins about 51% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0.5 points and 61.5 combined points. Tags: coin flip, leans high scoring.
Florida (No. 17) is 5-2 against the 12th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 39.6 and allowing 28.3 points per game (+11.3 per game). Florida State is 3-4 against the 13th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 31.6 and allowing 27.9 points per game (+3.7 per game).
Florida's elite offense (13th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 34.7 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Florida State's middle-of-the-pack defense (46th); that mismatch is where most of Florida's projected points come from. The most lopsided unit battle: Florida State's strong offense (25th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 32.5 points against an average defense) against Florida's middle-of-the-pack defense (43rd).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Florida by 23 and Florida State by 22 about 80% of the time.
Florida State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Florida is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ABC.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Florida / Florida State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Florida -4.5 | 52.5 | -205 / +170 |
| DraftKings | Florida -4.5 | 52.5 | -205 / +170 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Florida State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Florida -0.5 | 61.5 | 49% |
| Market consensus | Florida -4.5 | 52.5 | 36% |
| Blended projection | Florida -4 | 53.6 | 40% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Florida State win probability
- model 49% · market (no-vig) 36% · difference +13 pts
- Margin
- model Florida -0.5 · market Florida -4.5 · difference +4.0 pts (Florida State view)
- Total
- model 61.5 · market 52.5 · difference +9.0
Model margin is 4.0 pts more toward Florida State than the market.
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Florida vs Florida State: stat comparison
| Stat | Florida | Florida State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 39.6#9 | 31.6#51 |
| Points allowed per game | 28.3#106 | 27.9#103 |
| Yards per play | 6.38#41 | 6.46#37 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.70#76 | 6.31#116 |
| Rushing yards per game | 203.0#30 | 193.7#40 |
| Net passing yards per game | 249.7#45 | 221.4#72 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 137.0#45 | 196.9#116 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 241.0#111 | 235.6#108 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.71#43 | 1.14#104 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.86#66 | 0.71#92 |
| Sacks per game | 3.14#8 | 2.57#25 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.43#44 | 2.57#116 |
| Stat | Florida | Florida State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.21#16 | +0.17#33 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.14#118 | +0.20#129 |
| Success rate | 45.7%#40 | 43.1%#69 |
| Success rate allowed | 44.5%#110 | 44.7%#116 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.4%#55 | 15.6%#14 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.1%#54 | 14.1%#118 |
| Havoc rate | 15.5%#31 | 12.4%#108 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.2%#66 | 12.1%#42 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 5.02#8 | 4.70#28 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.70#128 | 3.70#56 |
| Average starting field position | own 31#48 | own 29#78 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 28#52 | own 28#43 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 71.0#14 | 64.3#84 |
| Stat | Florida | Florida State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.09#60 | +0.13#39 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.36#8 | +0.23#25 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.12#116 | +0.07#88 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.16#106 | +0.34#133 |
| Rushing success rate | 43.2%#81 | 45.9%#51 |
| Passing success rate | 48.9%#21 | 39.9%#89 |
| Run stuff rate | 18.2%#87 | 12.6%#11 |
| Passing-down success rate | 31.9%#62 | 38.9%#13 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 35.4%#122 | 30.9%#88 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 45.7%#33 | 42.7%#57 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 44.1%#118 | 42.9%#108 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 78.1%#6 | 75.0%#12 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 65.2%#95 | 62.5%#85 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Florida schedule · Florida State schedule · all Week 13 projections
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