Matchup analysis
Our model projects Florida 25, Oklahoma 23 at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Week 10. That is a genuine toss-up: Florida wins about 54% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1.4 points and 48.2 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Oklahoma is 4-3 against the 9th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 21.6 and allowing 17.7 points per game (+3.9 per game). Florida (No. 17) is 5-2 against the 12th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 39.6 and allowing 28.3 points per game (+11.3 per game).
Florida's middle-of-the-pack defense (43rd) should limit Oklahoma's middle-of-the-pack offense (63rd of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 27.3 points against an average defense). Florida's elite offense (13th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 34.7 points against an average defense) meets Oklahoma's elite defense (5th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Florida puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Oklahoma by 21 and Florida by 24 about 80% of the time.
Florida gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Oklahoma would be favoured by 0.7. The game is on SEC Network.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Oklahoma vs Florida: stat comparison
| Stat | Oklahoma | Florida |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 21.6#110 | 39.6#9 |
| Points allowed per game | 17.7#24 | 28.3#106 |
| Yards per play | 5.64#100 | 6.38#41 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.14#35 | 5.70#76 |
| Rushing yards per game | 123.1#126 | 203.0#30 |
| Net passing yards per game | 234.9#57 | 249.7#45 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 137.3#47 | 137.0#45 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 155.1#8 | 241.0#111 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.71#135 | 0.71#43 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.57#109 | 0.86#66 |
| Sacks per game | 3.29#6 | 3.14#8 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.43#106 | 1.43#44 |
| Stat | Oklahoma | Florida |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.05#131 | +0.21#16 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.12#5 | +0.14#118 |
| Success rate | 36.5%#132 | 45.7%#40 |
| Success rate allowed | 34.0%#4 | 44.5%#110 |
| Explosive play rate | 9.9%#129 | 13.4%#55 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 9.9%#19 | 11.1%#54 |
| Havoc rate | 15.1%#40 | 15.5%#31 |
| Havoc allowed | 17.4%#135 | 13.2%#66 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.31#124 | 5.02#8 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 2.75#4 | 4.70#128 |
| Average starting field position | own 27#120 | own 31#48 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 32#127 | own 28#52 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 63.4#92 | 71.0#14 |
| Stat | Oklahoma | Florida |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.10#132 | +0.09#60 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.01#110 | +0.36#8 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.06#27 | +0.12#116 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.19#5 | +0.16#106 |
| Rushing success rate | 34.7%#134 | 43.2%#81 |
| Passing success rate | 38.0%#108 | 48.9%#21 |
| Run stuff rate | 19.6%#107 | 18.2%#87 |
| Passing-down success rate | 29.9%#91 | 31.9%#62 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 25.6%#22 | 35.4%#122 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 40.4%#74 | 45.7%#33 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 24.4%#2 | 44.1%#118 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 40.0%#136 | 78.1%#6 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 46.7%#19 | 65.2%#95 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Oklahoma schedule · Florida schedule · all Week 10 projections
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