Matchup analysis
Our model projects Florida 29, Kentucky 29 at Kroger Field in Week 11. That is a genuine toss-up: Florida wins about 52% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0.6 points and 58.3 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Florida (No. 17) is 5-2 against the 9th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 39.6 and allowing 28.3 points per game (+11.3 per game). Kentucky (No. 9) is 7-1 against the 8th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 32.9 and allowing 24.8 points per game (+8.1 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Florida's elite offense (13th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 34.7 points against an average defense) against Kentucky's strong defense (33rd). Kentucky's strong offense (35th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 31 points against an average defense) meets Florida's middle-of-the-pack defense (43rd) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Kentucky puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Florida by 23 and Kentucky by 22 about 80% of the time.
Kentucky gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Florida is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Florida vs Kentucky: stat comparison
| Stat | Florida | Kentucky |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 39.6#9 | 32.9#42 |
| Points allowed per game | 28.3#106 | 24.8#75 |
| Yards per play | 6.38#41 | 6.25#52 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.70#76 | 5.57#65 |
| Rushing yards per game | 203.0#30 | 178.5#57 |
| Net passing yards per game | 249.7#45 | 217.1#79 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 137.0#45 | 127.3#32 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 241.0#111 | 255.4#123 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.71#43 | 0.25#4 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.86#66 | 1.75#7 |
| Sacks per game | 3.14#8 | 2.63#21 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.43#44 | 2.13#87 |
| Stat | Florida | Kentucky |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.21#16 | +0.12#49 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.14#118 | +0.05#71 |
| Success rate | 45.7%#40 | 48.9%#18 |
| Success rate allowed | 44.5%#110 | 44.5%#111 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.4%#55 | 13.4%#56 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.1%#54 | 10.9%#41 |
| Havoc rate | 15.5%#31 | 15.4%#33 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.2%#66 | 11.1%#26 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 5.02#8 | 4.65#30 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.70#128 | 3.83#72 |
| Average starting field position | own 31#48 | own 32#18 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 28#52 | own 29#78 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 71.0#14 | 63.3#94 |
| Stat | Florida | Kentucky |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.09#60 | +0.16#26 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.36#8 | +0.09#71 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.12#116 | +0.09#96 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.16#106 | +0.03#60 |
| Rushing success rate | 43.2%#81 | 51.9%#7 |
| Passing success rate | 48.9%#21 | 45.9%#36 |
| Run stuff rate | 18.2%#87 | 16.0%#47 |
| Passing-down success rate | 31.9%#62 | 30.8%#74 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 35.4%#122 | 44.4%#138 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 45.7%#33 | 34.8%#116 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 44.1%#118 | 50.4%#133 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 78.1%#6 | 65.8%#45 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 65.2%#95 | 63.3%#90 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Florida schedule · Kentucky schedule · all Week 11 projections
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