Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Florida 34.1, South Carolina 27 at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Week 6. That is a lean: Florida wins about 68% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 7.1 points and 61 combined points. Tags: upset alert, leans high scoring.
South Carolina is 2-3, scoring 37.6 and allowing 26.8 points per game (+10.8 per game). Florida (No. 16) is 4-1, scoring 46.2 and allowing 27.2 points per game (+19 per game).
South Carolina's strong offense (29th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 32.1 points against an average defense) meets Florida's middle-of-the-pack defense (42nd) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points South Carolina puts up. Florida's elite offense (10th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 36 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over South Carolina's strong defense (38th); that mismatch is where most of Florida's projected points come from.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between South Carolina by 15 and Florida by 30 about 80% of the time.
Florida gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Florida by about 5. The game is on SEC Network.
Result: South Carolina 38, Florida 19. South Carolina won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 26.1 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (South Carolina / Florida) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Florida -14.25 → Florida -10.5 | 59.25 → 59.5 | +352.5 / -472.5 |
| Bovada | Florida -14 → Florida -10.5 | 61 → 59.5 | +355 / -490 |
| DraftKings | Florida -14.5 → Florida -10.5 | 57.5 → 59.5 | +350 / -455 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Florida win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Florida -7 | 61.0 | 68% |
| Market consensus | Florida -10.5 | 59.5 | 79% |
| Blended projection | Florida -10 | 59.6 | 75% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Florida win probability
- model 68% · market (no-vig) 79% · difference -11 pts
- Margin
- model Florida -7.1 · market Florida -10.5 · difference -3.4 pts (Florida view)
- Total
- model 61.0 · market 59.5 · difference +1.5
Model margin is 3.4 pts more toward South Carolina than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | South Carolina 27.0, Florida 34.1 | Florida 68%wrong winner | 26.1 | 4.0 |
| New formula | South Carolina 28.1, Florida 34.0 | Florida 65%wrong winner | 24.9 | 5.1 |
Final: South Carolina 38, Florida 19. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
South Carolina vs Florida: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | South Carolina | Florida |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 37.6#26 | 46.2#5 |
| Points allowed per game | 26.8#102 | 27.2#104 |
| Yards per play | 6.71#37 | 7.16#14 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.37#60 | 5.77#87 |
| Rushing yards per game | 251.4#11 | 222.4#28 |
| Net passing yards per game | 227.6#69 | 268.6#35 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 110.6#23 | 140.6#57 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 217.0#85 | 254.0#119 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00#73 | 0.60#41 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.40#118 | 1.00#46 |
| Sacks per game | 2.60#33 | 2.80#22 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.40#49 | 1.20#35 |
| Stat | South Carolina | Florida |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.13#48 | +0.28#4 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.11#107 | +0.18#123 |
| Success rate | 44.7%#56 | 49.8%#13 |
| Success rate allowed | 41.6%#81 | 45.2%#115 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.5%#56 | 16.3%#10 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.9%#79 | 11.4%#59 |
| Havoc rate | 14.1%#71 | 15.2%#43 |
| Havoc allowed | 11.2%#28 | 12.5%#55 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.63#41 | 5.69#1 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 5.30#136 | 4.41#111 |
| Average starting field position | own 27#113 | own 31#45 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 29#77 | own 28#51 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 71.4#17 | 68.6#43 |
| Stat | South Carolina | Florida |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.27#2 | +0.14#41 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.00#102 | +0.50#2 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.06#31 | +0.21#130 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.24#119 | +0.16#103 |
| Rushing success rate | 48.3%#34 | 47.4%#46 |
| Passing success rate | 41.3%#83 | 53.3%#12 |
| Run stuff rate | 13.3%#21 | 15.9%#60 |
| Passing-down success rate | 28.9%#92 | 34.8%#43 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 31.5%#90 | 36.4%#123 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 44.9%#51 | 46.7%#40 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 33.8%#33 | 43.4%#111 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 68.4%#47 | 80.8%#6 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 76.9%#126 | 61.1%#82 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: South Carolina schedule · Florida schedule · all Week 6 projections
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