Matchup analysis
Our model projects Texas 26, Missouri 20 at Memorial Stadium in Week 10. That is a lean: Texas wins about 66% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 6.5 points and 46 combined points. Tags: upset alert, leans low scoring.
Texas (No. 11) is 5-2 against the 1st-toughest schedule so far, scoring 30.7 and allowing 19.1 points per game (+11.6 per game). Missouri (No. 23) is 5-2 against the 30th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 31.1 and allowing 19.6 points per game (+11.5 per game).
Texas's elite offense (11th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 34.9 points against an average defense) meets Missouri's strong defense (16th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Texas puts up. Texas's elite defense (6th) should limit Missouri's strong offense (39th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 30.1 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Texas by 29 and Missouri by 16 about 80% of the time.
Missouri gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Texas is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Texas vs Missouri: stat comparison
| Stat | Texas | Missouri |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 30.7#57 | 31.1#54 |
| Points allowed per game | 19.1#29 | 19.6#31 |
| Yards per play | 5.72#95 | 6.35#46 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.19#1 | 5.27#44 |
| Rushing yards per game | 165.4#72 | 165.1#73 |
| Net passing yards per game | 217.7#78 | 264.9#30 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 124.7#27 | 130.0#36 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 158.7#12 | 218.6#94 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.43#129 | 0.43#15 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00#48 | 1.00#47 |
| Sacks per game | 2.86#13 | 2.57#22 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.71#118 | 1.00#14 |
| Stat | Texas | Missouri |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.02#120 | +0.11#55 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.10#12 | -0.06#22 |
| Success rate | 42.5%#73 | 40.9%#98 |
| Success rate allowed | 34.0%#5 | 35.1%#16 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.5%#100 | 13.7%#41 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 7.3%#3 | 12.1%#78 |
| Havoc rate | 18.3%#5 | 17.6%#11 |
| Havoc allowed | 16.1%#127 | 14.4%#100 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.95#13 | 3.72#99 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.12#13 | 3.92#81 |
| Average starting field position | own 29#76 | own 33#13 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 29#61 | own 25#8 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 67.0#60 | 67.7#52 |
| Stat | Texas | Missouri |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.02#116 | -0.07#127 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.02#113 | +0.28#18 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.03#37 | -0.08#17 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.15#10 | -0.04#38 |
| Rushing success rate | 44.9%#61 | 35.9%#131 |
| Passing success rate | 40.1%#86 | 45.7%#40 |
| Run stuff rate | 18.4%#90 | 19.8%#109 |
| Passing-down success rate | 33.8%#40 | 29.9%#90 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 21.5%#5 | 25.6%#21 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 39.2%#89 | 42.4%#62 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 33.0%#19 | 37.7%#58 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 64.3%#62 | 48.3%#123 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 47.1%#21 | 50.0%#32 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Texas schedule · Missouri schedule · all Week 10 projections
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