Matchup analysis
Our model projects Texas 36, Arkansas 13 at DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium in Week 12. That is a heavy edge: Texas wins about 94% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 23.2 points and 49 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing.
Arkansas is 3-4 against the 8th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 21 and allowing 26.7 points per game (-5.7 per game). Texas (No. 11) is 5-2 against the 1st-toughest schedule so far, scoring 30.7 and allowing 19.1 points per game (+11.6 per game).
Texas's elite defense (6th) should limit Arkansas's middle-of-the-pack offense (79th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 25.5 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: Texas's elite offense (11th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 34.9 points against an average defense) against Arkansas's middle-of-the-pack defense (68th).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Texas by 1 and Texas by 46 about 80% of the time.
Texas gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Texas by about 21.1.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Arkansas vs Texas: stat comparison
| Stat | Arkansas | Texas |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 21.0#115 | 30.7#57 |
| Points allowed per game | 26.7#96 | 19.1#29 |
| Yards per play | 5.08#130 | 5.72#95 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.21#109 | 4.19#1 |
| Rushing yards per game | 125.6#124 | 165.4#72 |
| Net passing yards per game | 221.6#71 | 217.7#78 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 156.1#71 | 124.7#27 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 207.7#73 | 158.7#12 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00#76 | 1.43#129 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00#46 | 1.00#48 |
| Sacks per game | 1.43#109 | 2.86#13 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.29#99 | 2.71#118 |
| Stat | Arkansas | Texas |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.03#125 | -0.02#120 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.10#101 | -0.10#12 |
| Success rate | 43.2%#66 | 42.5%#73 |
| Success rate allowed | 44.0%#103 | 34.0%#5 |
| Explosive play rate | 9.7%#131 | 11.5%#100 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.8%#111 | 7.3%#3 |
| Havoc rate | 13.5%#79 | 18.3%#5 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.6%#78 | 16.1%#127 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.68#103 | 4.95#13 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 5.21#137 | 3.12#13 |
| Average starting field position | own 27#125 | own 29#76 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 30#95 | own 29#61 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 68.3#42 | 67.0#60 |
| Stat | Arkansas | Texas |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.04#121 | -0.02#116 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.02#112 | -0.02#113 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.21#134 | -0.03#37 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.02#41 | -0.15#10 |
| Rushing success rate | 41.1%#97 | 44.9%#61 |
| Passing success rate | 45.0%#44 | 40.1%#86 |
| Run stuff rate | 16.1%#52 | 18.4%#90 |
| Passing-down success rate | 27.5%#111 | 33.8%#40 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 21.2%#3 | 21.5%#5 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 42.4%#61 | 39.2%#89 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 44.6%#120 | 33.0%#19 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 57.7%#94 | 64.3%#62 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 85.2%#138 | 47.1%#21 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Arkansas schedule · Texas schedule · all Week 12 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.