Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Tennessee 28.9, Texas 28.5 at Neyland Stadium in Week 4. That is a genuine toss-up: Tennessee wins about 51% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0.4 points and 57.3 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Texas (No. 1) is 3-0, scoring 37.7 and allowing 12 points per game (+25.7 per game). Tennessee (No. 14) is 3-0, scoring 47.7 and allowing 14 points per game (+33.7 per game).
Texas's elite offense (11th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 36.1 points against an average defense) meets Tennessee's elite defense (13th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Texas puts up. Tennessee's elite offense (6th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 40 points against an average defense) meets Texas's elite defense (5th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Tennessee puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Texas by 22 and Tennessee by 23 about 80% of the time.
Tennessee gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Texas would be favoured by 1.7. The game is on ABC.
Result: Texas 20, Tennessee 17. Texas won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 3.4 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Texas / Tennessee) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Texas -5 → Texas -5.5 | 56.25 → 54.5 | -192.5 / +162.5 |
| DraftKings | Texas -6.5 → Texas -5.5 | 56.5 → 54.5 | -205 / +170 |
| Bovada | Texas -3.5 → Texas -5.5 | 56 → 54.5 | -180 / +155 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Tennessee win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Tennessee -0.5 | 57.3 | 51% |
| Market consensus | Texas -5.5 | 54.5 | 37% |
| Blended projection | Texas -4.5 | 55.1 | 38% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Tennessee win probability
- model 51% · market (no-vig) 37% · difference +14 pts
- Margin
- model Tennessee -0.4 · market Texas -5.5 · difference +5.9 pts (Tennessee view)
- Total
- model 57.3 · market 54.5 · difference +2.8
Model margin is 5.9 pts more toward Tennessee than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Texas 28.5, Tennessee 28.9 | Tennessee 51%wrong winner | 3.4 | 20.3 |
| New formula | Texas 27.4, Tennessee 29.2 | Tennessee 55%wrong winner | 4.8 | 19.7 |
Final: Texas 20, Tennessee 17. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Texas vs Tennessee: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Texas | Tennessee |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 37.7#42 | 47.7#8 |
| Points allowed per game | 12.0#17 | 14.0#26 |
| Yards per play | 5.47#108 | 7.52#14 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.86#39 | 4.90#42 |
| Rushing yards per game | 184.7#56 | 303.0#4 |
| Net passing yards per game | 235.0#64 | 208.7#87 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 112.7#35 | 163.0#92 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 174.0#45 | 148.7#20 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00#81 | 0.00#2 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.33#29 | 0.67#84 |
| Sacks per game | 1.67#71 | 4.00#4 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.33#57 | 1.00#38 |
| Stat | Texas | Tennessee |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.12#56 | +0.17#37 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.07#23 | -0.08#22 |
| Success rate | 47.8%#27 | 46.6%#34 |
| Success rate allowed | 35.9%#24 | 38.9%#55 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.3%#107 | 14.6%#36 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.6%#46 | 11.0%#58 |
| Havoc rate | 16.2%#36 | 17.3%#20 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.8%#85 | 12.4%#58 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 5.10#18 | 5.02#22 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 2.77#7 | 2.96#15 |
| Average starting field position | own 32#52 | own 32#47 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 29#80 | own 26#30 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 76.7#7 | 68.0#49 |
| Stat | Texas | Tennessee |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.03#95 | +0.21#15 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.22#46 | +0.10#72 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.06#36 | +0.07#97 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.08#31 | -0.19#14 |
| Rushing success rate | 50.5%#27 | 52.8%#14 |
| Passing success rate | 45.1%#60 | 44.4%#64 |
| Run stuff rate | 18.3%#91 | 13.7%#28 |
| Passing-down success rate | 40.0%#14 | 36.6%#35 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 28.3%#62 | 28.6%#66 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 56.3%#11 | 50.0%#26 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 38.5%#69 | 40.0%#83 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 68.8%#51 | 78.9%#15 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 33.3%#9 | 35.4%#12 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Texas schedule · Tennessee schedule · all Week 4 projections
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