Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Texas 24.9, Oklahoma 15.2 on a neutral field at Cotton Bowl in Week 6. That is a solid edge: Texas wins about 74% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 9.7 points and 40 combined points. Tags: leans low scoring.
Texas (No. 1) is 4-0, scoring 33.3 and allowing 13.3 points per game (+20 per game). Oklahoma is 2-2, scoring 22 and allowing 16 points per game (+6 per game).
Texas's elite offense (11th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 35.8 points against an average defense) meets Oklahoma's elite defense (5th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Texas puts up. Expect Oklahoma to find it hard going: Texas's elite defense (1st) outranks Oklahoma's middle-of-the-pack offense (55th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 28.4 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Texas by 32 and Oklahoma by 13 about 80% of the time.
Neutral site, so no home-field points either way. The game is on ABC.
Result: Texas 24, Oklahoma 27. Oklahoma won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 12.7 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Texas / Oklahoma) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Texas -7 → Texas -7.75 | 44.25 → 40.75 | -332.5 / +267.5 |
| DraftKings | Texas -6 → Texas -7.5 | 48.5 → 40.5 | -345 / +275 |
| Bovada | Texas -8 | 40 → 41 | -320 / +260 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Oklahoma win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Texas -9.5 | 40.0 | 26% |
| Market consensus | Texas -7.5 | 40.8 | 26% |
| Blended projection | Texas -8 | 42.2 | 29% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Oklahoma win probability
- model 26% · market (no-vig) 26% · difference +0 pts
- Margin
- model Texas -9.7 · market Texas -7.75 · difference -1.9 pts (Oklahoma view)
- Total
- model 40.0 · market 40.75 · difference -0.7
Model margin is 1.9 pts more toward Texas than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Texas 24.9, Oklahoma 15.2 | Texas 74%wrong winner | 12.7 | 11.0 |
| New formula | Texas 23.1, Oklahoma 13.9 | Texas 73%wrong winner | 12.2 | 14.0 |
Final: Texas 24, Oklahoma 27. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Texas vs Oklahoma: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Texas | Oklahoma |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 33.3#55 | 22.0#109 |
| Points allowed per game | 13.3#11 | 16.0#24 |
| Yards per play | 5.41#115 | 5.67#101 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.27#3 | 4.49#13 |
| Rushing yards per game | 165.0#73 | 116.5#130 |
| Net passing yards per game | 219.3#76 | 230.8#66 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 120.3#29 | 139.8#55 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 150.0#12 | 104.8#2 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00#74 | 1.75#132 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00#49 | 0.25#130 |
| Sacks per game | 3.75#5 | 3.25#8 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.50#107 | 2.00#86 |
| Stat | Texas | Oklahoma |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.07#78 | -0.04#121 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.13#7 | -0.16#2 |
| Success rate | 45.5%#43 | 36.8%#126 |
| Success rate allowed | 33.9%#9 | 30.8%#2 |
| Explosive play rate | 10.5%#118 | 10.8%#111 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 9.2%#14 | 7.6%#4 |
| Havoc rate | 17.0%#17 | 17.8%#10 |
| Havoc allowed | 15.2%#112 | 16.2%#125 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.88#21 | 3.94#83 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 2.88#7 | 2.38#1 |
| Average starting field position | own 32#34 | own 28#107 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 27#47 | own 35#137 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 71.0#22 | 61.3#109 |
| Stat | Texas | Oklahoma |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.02#110 | -0.16#136 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.16#46 | +0.06#79 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.00#56 | -0.08#25 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.23#6 | -0.27#5 |
| Rushing success rate | 46.2%#60 | 33.3%#133 |
| Passing success rate | 44.9%#55 | 39.8%#91 |
| Run stuff rate | 17.4%#76 | 21.6%#125 |
| Passing-down success rate | 36.5%#26 | 30.9%#78 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 22.2%#9 | 25.4%#32 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 50.0%#21 | 40.4%#79 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 33.9%#35 | 24.5%#2 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 68.4%#48 | 50.0%#116 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 30.0%#1 | 33.3%#3 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Texas schedule · Oklahoma schedule · all Week 6 projections
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