Matchup analysis
Our model projects Texas 25, Texas A&M 22 at Kyle Field in Week 13. That is a lean: Texas wins about 58% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3.1 points and 46.7 combined points. Tags: upset alert, leans low scoring.
Texas (No. 11) is 5-2 against the 1st-toughest schedule so far, scoring 30.7 and allowing 19.1 points per game (+11.6 per game). Texas A&M is 4-4 against the 27th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 28.3 and allowing 18.9 points per game (+9.4 per game).
Texas's elite offense (11th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 34.9 points against an average defense) meets Texas A&M's strong defense (14th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Texas puts up. Texas's elite defense (6th) should limit Texas A&M's strong offense (23rd of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 32.6 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Texas by 26 and Texas A&M by 19 about 80% of the time.
Texas A&M gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Texas is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ABC.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Texas / Texas A&M) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Texas -2.5 | 53.5 | -142 / +120 |
| DraftKings | Texas -2.5 | 53.5 | -142 / +120 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Texas A&M win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Texas -3 | 46.7 | 42% |
| Market consensus | Texas -2.5 | 53.5 | 44% |
| Blended projection | Texas -2.5 | 53.6 | 43% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Texas A&M win probability
- model 42% · market (no-vig) 44% · difference -2 pts
- Margin
- model Texas -3.1 · market Texas -2.5 · difference -0.6 pts (Texas A&M view)
- Total
- model 46.7 · market 53.5 · difference -6.8
Model margin is 0.6 pts more toward Texas than the market.
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Texas vs Texas A&M: stat comparison
| Stat | Texas | Texas A&M |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 30.7#57 | 28.3#72 |
| Points allowed per game | 19.1#29 | 18.9#27 |
| Yards per play | 5.72#95 | 5.26#122 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.19#1 | 6.01#93 |
| Rushing yards per game | 165.4#72 | 169.9#63 |
| Net passing yards per game | 217.7#78 | 185.4#110 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 124.7#27 | 135.9#43 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 158.7#12 | 205.1#66 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.43#129 | 1.25#116 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00#48 | 0.88#63 |
| Sacks per game | 2.86#13 | 0.88#133 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.71#118 | 1.75#61 |
| Stat | Texas | Texas A&M |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.02#120 | +0.01#106 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.10#12 | -0.00#43 |
| Success rate | 42.5%#73 | 42.7%#71 |
| Success rate allowed | 34.0%#5 | 39.6%#45 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.5%#100 | 10.6%#122 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 7.3%#3 | 15.6%#132 |
| Havoc rate | 18.3%#5 | 12.9%#97 |
| Havoc allowed | 16.1%#127 | 12.8%#54 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.95#13 | 4.54#34 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.12#13 | 3.31#23 |
| Average starting field position | own 29#76 | own 32#19 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 29#61 | own 28#57 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 67.0#60 | 67.5#54 |
| Stat | Texas | Texas A&M |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.02#116 | +0.09#61 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.02#113 | -0.07#124 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.03#37 | -0.08#19 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.15#10 | +0.08#83 |
| Rushing success rate | 44.9%#61 | 44.6%#68 |
| Passing success rate | 40.1%#86 | 40.9%#78 |
| Run stuff rate | 18.4%#90 | 15.1%#34 |
| Passing-down success rate | 33.8%#40 | 32.6%#47 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 21.5%#5 | 26.4%#31 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 39.2%#89 | 42.9%#56 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 33.0%#19 | 33.0%#20 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 64.3%#62 | 61.1%#73 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 47.1%#21 | 61.1%#77 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Texas schedule · Texas A&M schedule · all Week 13 projections
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