Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Ohio State 42.1, Illinois 13.4 at Ohio Stadium in Week 4. That is a heavy edge: Ohio State wins about 97% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 28.7 points and 55.5 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing.
Illinois is 2-1, scoring 39 and allowing 21.3 points per game (+17.7 per game). Ohio State (No. 7) is 2-1, scoring 46 and allowing 10 points per game (+36 per game).
Ohio State's elite defense (1st) should limit Illinois's strong offense (37th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 30.1 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: Ohio State's elite offense (5th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 40.5 points against an average defense) against Illinois's middle-of-the-pack defense (62nd).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Ohio State by 6 and Ohio State by 51 about 80% of the time.
Ohio State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Ohio State by about 26.6. The game is on Fox.
Result: Illinois 19, Ohio State 42. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 5.7 points and the total by 5.5.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Illinois / Ohio State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Ohio State -27.25 → Ohio State -25.5 | 54.25 → 53.5 | +1450 / -5250 |
| DraftKings | Ohio State -27.5 → Ohio State -25.5 | 54.5 → 53.5 | +1600 / -4000 |
| Bovada | Ohio State -27 → Ohio State -25.5 | 54 → 53.5 | +1300 / -6500 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Ohio State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Ohio State -28.5 | 55.5 | 97% |
| Market consensus | Ohio State -25.5 | 53.5 | 94% |
| Blended projection | Ohio State -26 | 54.1 | 96% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Ohio State win probability
- model 97% · market (no-vig) 94% · difference +3 pts
- Margin
- model Ohio State -28.7 · market Ohio State -25.5 · difference +3.2 pts (Ohio State view)
- Total
- model 55.5 · market 53.5 · difference +2.0
Model margin is 3.2 pts more toward Ohio State than the market.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Illinois 13.4, Ohio State 42.1 | Ohio State 97%right winner | 5.7 | 5.5 |
| New formula | Illinois 13.6, Ohio State 41.5 | Ohio State 97%right winner | 4.8 | 5.9 |
Final: Illinois 19, Ohio State 42. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Illinois vs Ohio State: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Illinois | Ohio State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 39.0#36 | 46.0#12 |
| Points allowed per game | 21.3#65 | 10.0#12 |
| Yards per play | 7.36#19 | 8.05#6 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.03#104 | 3.52#3 |
| Rushing yards per game | 155.0#89 | 169.7#77 |
| Net passing yards per game | 257.0#45 | 369.7#1 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 145.0#75 | 97.7#20 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 259.0#121 | 125.0#12 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.67#58 | 1.33#112 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00#57 | 1.33#36 |
| Sacks per game | 1.00#112 | 1.33#99 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 0.67#18 | 1.67#81 |
| Stat | Illinois | Ohio State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.18#33 | +0.16#43 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.16#121 | -0.01#48 |
| Success rate | 53.4%#3 | 46.9%#33 |
| Success rate allowed | 41.3%#86 | 37.7%#36 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.7%#75 | 13.5%#59 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.6%#49 | 9.1%#19 |
| Havoc rate | 12.1%#108 | 13.3%#85 |
| Havoc allowed | 8.0%#4 | 12.7%#66 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.65#36 | 4.30#66 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.10#85 | 3.77#63 |
| Average starting field position | own 30#71 | own 34#35 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 30#85 | own 27#36 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 56.0#129 | 67.0#55 |
| Stat | Illinois | Ohio State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.05#86 | +0.04#88 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.30#20 | +0.25#37 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.09#105 | +0.01#73 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.24#115 | -0.03#50 |
| Rushing success rate | 46.7%#55 | 43.9%#85 |
| Passing success rate | 61.0%#4 | 59.0%#8 |
| Run stuff rate | 12.3%#16 | 19.2%#99 |
| Passing-down success rate | 41.1%#12 | 31.0%#76 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 30.6%#82 | 31.4%#90 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 46.4%#47 | 39.4%#91 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 34.9%#55 | 34.8%#54 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 76.7%#19 | 59.1%#95 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 70.5%#108 | 53.3%#52 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Illinois schedule · Ohio State schedule · all Week 4 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.