Matchup analysis
Our model projects Ohio State 31, Oregon 21 at Ohio Stadium in Week 10. That is a solid edge: Ohio State wins about 75% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 10.1 points and 51.9 combined points.
Oregon is 4-3 against the 20th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 33.1 and allowing 20.7 points per game (+12.4 per game). Ohio State (No. 2) is 6-1 against the 19th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 39.3 and allowing 13.4 points per game (+25.9 per game).
Oregon's elite offense (8th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 36.4 points against an average defense) meets Ohio State's elite defense (2nd) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Oregon puts up. Ohio State's elite offense (4th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 40.2 points against an average defense) meets Oregon's elite defense (10th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Ohio State puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Oregon by 12 and Ohio State by 33 about 80% of the time.
Ohio State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Ohio State by about 8. The game is on CBS.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Oregon / Ohio State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Ohio State -6 | 52.5 | +210 / -258 |
| DraftKings | Ohio State -6 | 52.5 | +210 / -258 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Ohio State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Ohio State -10 | 51.9 | 75% |
| Market consensus | Ohio State -6 | 52.5 | 69% |
| Blended projection | Ohio State -6.5 | 53.1 | 68% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Ohio State win probability
- model 75% · market (no-vig) 69% · difference +6 pts
- Margin
- model Ohio State -10.1 · market Ohio State -6 · difference +4.1 pts (Ohio State view)
- Total
- model 51.9 · market 52.5 · difference -0.6
Prediction exchange (Kalshi) price implies Ohio State 84%.
Model margin is 4.1 pts more toward Ohio State than the market.
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Oregon vs Ohio State: stat comparison
| Stat | Oregon | Ohio State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 33.1#41 | 39.3#10 |
| Points allowed per game | 20.7#40 | 13.4#4 |
| Yards per play | 5.96#74 | 7.21#8 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.31#49 | 4.33#2 |
| Rushing yards per game | 151.9#97 | 169.3#64 |
| Net passing yards per game | 264.4#31 | 324.9#6 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 146.9#60 | 106.3#8 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 199.6#53 | 163.0#14 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.86#58 | 1.14#106 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.43#13 | 1.00#52 |
| Sacks per game | 2.14#59 | 1.43#112 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.57#52 | 2.14#91 |
| Stat | Oregon | Ohio State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.03#100 | +0.19#22 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.08#15 | -0.07#17 |
| Success rate | 41.1%#97 | 50.4%#11 |
| Success rate allowed | 36.6%#23 | 34.8%#11 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.5%#71 | 14.7%#26 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.4%#32 | 10.1%#23 |
| Havoc rate | 15.7%#28 | 14.8%#49 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.6%#80 | 13.0%#60 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.84#17 | 5.05#7 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.85#74 | 3.38#29 |
| Average starting field position | own 32#28 | own 32#34 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 29#67 | own 26#16 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 69.9#24 | 68.6#41 |
| Stat | Oregon | Ohio State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.07#79 | +0.06#82 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.01#101 | +0.33#11 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.01#50 | -0.02#41 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.16#9 | -0.12#19 |
| Rushing success rate | 44.6%#69 | 47.4%#37 |
| Passing success rate | 38.5%#105 | 53.4%#8 |
| Run stuff rate | 15.5%#39 | 15.8%#44 |
| Passing-down success rate | 27.7%#107 | 34.0%#37 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 27.5%#43 | 29.0%#61 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 36.1%#107 | 45.5%#35 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 30.4%#10 | 38.4%#65 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 72.4%#23 | 65.6%#48 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 47.8%#27 | 46.2%#17 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Oregon schedule · Ohio State schedule · all Week 10 projections
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