Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Ohio State 37.3, Ball State 9.8 at Ohio Stadium in Week 1. That is a heavy edge: Ohio State wins about 96% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 27.5 points and 47 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing, leans low scoring.
Ball State has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. Ohio State has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
Ohio State's elite defense (2nd) should limit Ball State's struggling offense (120th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 19.4 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: Ohio State's elite offense (4th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 40.2 points against an average defense) against Ball State's struggling defense (133rd).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Ohio State by 5 and Ohio State by 50 about 80% of the time.
Ohio State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Ohio State by about 25.4. The game is on BTN.
Result: Ball State 3, Ohio State 56. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 25.5 points and the total by 12.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Ball State / Ohio State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Ohio State -50 → Ohio State -50.75 | 56.5 → 56 | — / — |
| Bovada | Ohio State -50.5 → Ohio State -51 | 56.5 | — / — |
| DraftKings | Ohio State -49.5 → Ohio State -50.5 | 55.5 | — / — |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Ohio State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Ohio State -27.5 | 47.0 | 96% |
| Market consensus | Ohio State -51 | 56.0 | 100% |
| Blended projection | Ohio State -47 | 55.8 | 100% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Ohio State win probability
- model 96% · market (no-vig) —
- Margin
- model Ohio State -27.5 · market Ohio State -50.75 · difference -23.2 pts (Ohio State view)
- Total
- model 47.0 · market 56 · difference -9.0
Model margin is 23.2 pts more toward Ball State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Ball State 9.8, Ohio State 37.3 | Ohio State 96%right winner | 25.5 | 12.0 |
| New formula | Ball State -4.0, Ohio State 56.8 | Ohio State 100%right winner | 7.8 | 6.2 |
Final: Ball State 3, Ohio State 56. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Ball State vs Ohio State: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Ball State | Ohio State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 15.8#132 | 33.4#21 |
| Points allowed per game | 29.8#103 | 9.3#1 |
| Yards per play | 4.60#135 | 6.88#15 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.21#108 | 4.20#2 |
| Rushing yards per game | 152.4#86 | 161.1#78 |
| Net passing yards per game | 123.1#132 | 269.1#24 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 187.5#105 | 107.2#6 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 222.3#76 | 120.5#1 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.08#86 | 0.71#18 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.83#105 | 0.93#78 |
| Sacks per game | 1.75#94 | 2.43#27 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 4.08#135 | 1.14#15 |
| Stat | Ball State | Ohio State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.14#133 | +0.17#9 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.03#82 | -0.21#2 |
| Success rate | 33.8%#136 | 51.8%#2 |
| Success rate allowed | 44.3%#102 | 34.1%#5 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.0%#115 | 12.9%#54 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.9%#87 | 7.4%#2 |
| Havoc rate | 11.6%#98 | 12.8%#61 |
| Havoc allowed | 16.7%#135 | 10.3%#22 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.12#128 | 5.10#3 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.88#71 | 2.93#7 |
| Average starting field position | own 28#119 | own 30#75 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 32#120 | own 26#4 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 59.8#129 | 62.5#113 |
| Stat | Ball State | Ohio State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.07#116 | +0.00#87 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.22#134 | +0.33#3 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.03#87 | -0.23#2 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.03#79 | -0.19#9 |
| Rushing success rate | 34.3%#133 | 44.9%#52 |
| Passing success rate | 30.3%#135 | 58.3%#1 |
| Run stuff rate | 21.3%#115 | 18.2%#66 |
| Passing-down success rate | 21.8%#134 | 38.5%#7 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 32.7%#108 | 22.1%#3 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 33.9%#127 | 54.3%#2 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 43.0%#100 | 32.4%#9 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 45.8%#131 | 68.7%#29 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 62.6%#87 | 38.5%#2 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Ball State schedule · Ohio State schedule · all Week 1 projections
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