Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Ohio State 27.5, Indiana 24.1 at Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN) in Week 7. That is a lean: Ohio State wins about 59% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3.4 points and 51.5 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Ohio State (No. 4) is 5-1, scoring 42.7 and allowing 13.2 points per game (+29.5 per game). Indiana (No. 5) is 6-0, scoring 40.2 and allowing 11.8 points per game (+28.4 per game).
Ohio State's elite offense (5th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 40.4 points against an average defense) meets Indiana's elite defense (5th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Ohio State puts up. Indiana's elite offense (8th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 37.3 points against an average defense) meets Ohio State's elite defense (3rd) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Indiana puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Ohio State by 26 and Indiana by 19 about 80% of the time.
Indiana gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Ohio State is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on Fox.
Result: Ohio State 19, Indiana 15. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 0.6 points and the total by 17.5.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, Action Network, ESPN · Updated Oct 30, 10:26 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Ohio State / Indiana) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Ohio State -2.75 | 49.5 → 49.75 | -163.5 / +140 |
| DraftKings | Ohio State -1.5 → Ohio State -3 | 48.5 → 49.5 | -142 / +120 |
| Bovada | Ohio State -4 → Ohio State -2.5 | 50.5 → 50 | -185 / +160 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Indiana win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Ohio State -3.5 | 51.5 | 41% |
| Market consensus | Ohio State -2.5 | 49.8 | 40% |
| Blended projection | Ohio State -3 | 50.7 | 42% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Indiana win probability
- model 41% · market (no-vig) 40% · difference +1 pts
- Margin
- model Ohio State -3.4 · market Ohio State -2.75 · difference -0.6 pts (Indiana view)
- Total
- model 51.5 · market 49.75 · difference +1.8
Model margin is 0.6 pts more toward Ohio State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Ohio State 27.5, Indiana 24.1 | Ohio State 59%right winner | 0.6 | 17.5 |
| New formula | Ohio State 26.8, Indiana 24.4 | Ohio State 56%right winner | 1.6 | 17.3 |
Final: Ohio State 19, Indiana 15. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Ohio State vs Indiana: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Ohio State | Indiana |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 42.7#7 | 40.2#14 |
| Points allowed per game | 13.2#8 | 11.8#5 |
| Yards per play | 7.58#6 | 7.86#3 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.14#2 | 4.71#14 |
| Rushing yards per game | 177.2#60 | 230.5#19 |
| Net passing yards per game | 343.3#4 | 233.5#66 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 110.0#19 | 100.2#12 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 142.7#7 | 185.0#40 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00#81 | 0.00#1 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00#56 | 1.00#54 |
| Sacks per game | 1.50#103 | 3.33#7 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.83#80 | 1.50#53 |
| Stat | Ohio State | Indiana |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.24#13 | +0.29#3 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.07#21 | -0.09#17 |
| Success rate | 52.7%#5 | 49.1%#20 |
| Success rate allowed | 34.9%#13 | 35.3%#15 |
| Explosive play rate | 14.4%#34 | 18.2%#3 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 8.6%#9 | 9.7%#20 |
| Havoc rate | 15.3%#34 | 14.3%#62 |
| Havoc allowed | 11.5%#36 | 10.7%#23 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 5.26#5 | 4.58#37 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.64#57 | 3.20#18 |
| Average starting field position | own 32#35 | own 32#33 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 26#23 | own 25#13 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 68.7#39 | 59.0#124 |
| Stat | Ohio State | Indiana |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.10#58 | +0.14#36 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.39#7 | +0.46#3 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.03#71 | -0.10#13 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.14#16 | -0.07#33 |
| Rushing success rate | 50.5%#18 | 45.0%#67 |
| Passing success rate | 55.5%#7 | 54.2%#10 |
| Run stuff rate | 15.0%#36 | 13.0%#18 |
| Passing-down success rate | 36.2%#28 | 34.2%#44 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 28.4%#63 | 30.6%#86 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 46.6%#39 | 45.3%#43 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 36.1%#49 | 34.5%#37 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 68.2%#46 | 72.0%#23 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 40.8%#9 | 60.0%#81 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Ohio State schedule · Indiana schedule · all Week 7 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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