Matchup analysis
Our model projects Ohio State 32, Nebraska 20 at Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE) in Week 12. That is a solid edge: Ohio State wins about 79% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 12.2 points and 51.2 combined points.
Ohio State (No. 2) is 6-1 against the 17th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 39.3 and allowing 13.4 points per game (+25.9 per game). Nebraska is 5-2 against the 44th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 35.6 and allowing 15.4 points per game (+20.2 per game).
Ohio State's elite offense (4th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 40.2 points against an average defense) meets Nebraska's strong defense (17th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Ohio State puts up. Expect Nebraska to find it hard going: Ohio State's elite defense (2nd) outranks Nebraska's strong offense (22nd of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 32.6 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Ohio State by 35 and Nebraska by 10 about 80% of the time.
Nebraska gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Ohio State is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
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Ohio State vs Nebraska: stat comparison
| Stat | Ohio State | Nebraska |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 39.3#10 | 35.6#29 |
| Points allowed per game | 13.4#4 | 15.4#14 |
| Yards per play | 7.21#8 | 6.08#59 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.33#2 | 5.08#32 |
| Rushing yards per game | 169.3#64 | 208.7#26 |
| Net passing yards per game | 324.9#6 | 223.6#69 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 106.3#8 | 118.6#22 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 163.0#14 | 181.3#29 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.14#106 | 0.57#32 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00#52 | 1.29#24 |
| Sacks per game | 1.43#112 | 2.57#26 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.14#91 | 1.86#70 |
| Stat | Ohio State | Nebraska |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.19#22 | +0.13#45 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.07#17 | -0.14#4 |
| Success rate | 50.4%#11 | 44.2%#54 |
| Success rate allowed | 34.8%#11 | 33.4%#3 |
| Explosive play rate | 14.7%#26 | 13.4%#57 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.1%#23 | 9.8%#18 |
| Havoc rate | 14.8%#49 | 16.0%#22 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.0%#60 | 13.0%#59 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 5.05#7 | 4.93#14 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.38#29 | 3.00#8 |
| Average starting field position | own 32#34 | own 29#83 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 26#16 | own 28#53 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 68.6#41 | 71.1#13 |
| Stat | Ohio State | Nebraska |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.06#82 | +0.16#23 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.33#11 | +0.11#66 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.02#41 | -0.04#32 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.12#19 | -0.22#4 |
| Rushing success rate | 47.4%#37 | 44.9%#62 |
| Passing success rate | 53.4%#8 | 43.4%#55 |
| Run stuff rate | 15.8%#44 | 17.1%#72 |
| Passing-down success rate | 34.0%#37 | 38.3%#14 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 29.0%#61 | 18.8%#2 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 45.5%#35 | 50.0%#17 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 38.4%#65 | 23.9%#1 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 65.6%#48 | 78.6%#5 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 46.2%#17 | 43.8%#14 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Ohio State schedule · Nebraska schedule · all Week 12 projections
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