Matchup analysis
Our model projects Ohio State 35, USC 22 at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum in Week 9. That is a solid edge: Ohio State wins about 81% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 13.3 points and 56.8 combined points.
Ohio State (No. 2) is 6-1 against the 19th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 39.3 and allowing 13.4 points per game (+25.9 per game). USC is 6-2 against the 26th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 32.8 and allowing 25 points per game (+7.8 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Ohio State's elite offense (4th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 40.2 points against an average defense) against USC's strong defense (36th). USC's elite offense (12th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 34.8 points against an average defense) meets Ohio State's elite defense (2nd) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points USC puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Ohio State by 36 and USC by 9 about 80% of the time.
USC gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Ohio State is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on NBC.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Ohio State / USC) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Ohio State -6.5 | 51.5 | -247.5 / +203 |
| DraftKings | Ohio State -6.5 | 51.5 | -250 / +205 |
| Hard Rock Bet | Ohio State -6.5 | 51.5 | -240 / +195 |
| FanDuel | Ohio State -6.5 | 51.5 | -245 / +202 |
| BetRivers | Ohio State -6.5 | 51 | -250 / +195 |
| BetMGM | Ohio State -6.5 | 51.5 | -250 / +200 |
| theScore Bet | Ohio State -6.5 | 51.5 | -250 / +210 |
| Pinnacle | Ohio State -6.5 | 51 | -244 / +204 |
| Bovada | Ohio State -6.5 | 51 | -245 / +205 |
This game's lines: The Odds API · read Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | USC win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Ohio State -13.5 | 56.8 | 19% |
| Market consensus | Ohio State -6.5 | 51.5 | 32% |
| Blended projection | Ohio State -7.5 | 52.5 | 30% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- USC win probability
- model 19% · market (no-vig) 32% · difference -13 pts
- Margin
- model Ohio State -13.3 · market Ohio State -6.5 · difference -6.8 pts (USC view)
- Total
- model 56.8 · market 51.5 · difference +5.3
Prediction exchange (Kalshi) price implies USC 31%.
Model margin is 6.8 pts more toward Ohio State than the market.
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Ohio State vs USC: stat comparison
| Stat | Ohio State | USC |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 39.3#10 | 32.8#44 |
| Points allowed per game | 13.4#4 | 25.0#77 |
| Yards per play | 7.21#8 | 6.37#45 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.33#2 | 5.81#83 |
| Rushing yards per game | 169.3#64 | 143.6#106 |
| Net passing yards per game | 324.9#6 | 301.4#9 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 106.3#8 | 123.8#26 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 163.0#14 | 212.0#83 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.14#106 | 1.00#85 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00#52 | 0.63#102 |
| Sacks per game | 1.43#112 | 1.75#91 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.14#91 | 1.38#41 |
| Stat | Ohio State | USC |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.19#22 | +0.22#14 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.07#17 | +0.09#99 |
| Success rate | 50.4%#11 | 50.6%#7 |
| Success rate allowed | 34.8%#11 | 40.6%#65 |
| Explosive play rate | 14.7%#26 | 12.9%#66 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.1%#23 | 10.9%#42 |
| Havoc rate | 14.8%#49 | 12.7%#103 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.0%#60 | 10.7%#20 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 5.05#7 | 4.48#36 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.38#29 | 4.83#132 |
| Average starting field position | own 32#34 | own 28#107 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 26#16 | own 28#44 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 68.6#41 | 69.9#25 |
| Stat | Ohio State | USC |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.06#82 | +0.04#89 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.33#11 | +0.37#6 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.02#41 | +0.02#61 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.12#19 | +0.17#114 |
| Rushing success rate | 47.4%#37 | 45.7%#55 |
| Passing success rate | 53.4%#8 | 54.6%#3 |
| Run stuff rate | 15.8%#44 | 19.8%#110 |
| Passing-down success rate | 34.0%#37 | 43.4%#6 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 29.0%#61 | 32.6%#107 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 45.5%#35 | 51.0%#15 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 38.4%#65 | 35.6%#38 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 65.6%#48 | 66.7%#42 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 46.2%#17 | 66.7%#105 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Ohio State schedule · USC schedule · all Week 9 projections
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