Matchup analysis
Our model projects Michigan 21, UCLA 21 at Michigan Stadium in Week 12. That is a genuine toss-up: Michigan wins about 52% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0.7 points and 42.3 combined points. Tags: coin flip, leans low scoring.
UCLA (No. 7) is 7-0 against the 42nd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 34.4 and allowing 15.3 points per game (+19.1 per game). Michigan is 4-3 against the 15th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 20.3 and allowing 15.7 points per game (+4.6 per game).
Michigan's strong defense (18th) should limit UCLA's middle-of-the-pack offense (44th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 29.6 points against an average defense). Expect Michigan to find it hard going: UCLA's strong defense (24th) outranks Michigan's middle-of-the-pack offense (67th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 26.8 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between UCLA by 22 and Michigan by 23 about 80% of the time.
Michigan gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field UCLA would be favoured by 1.4.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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UCLA vs Michigan: stat comparison
| Stat | UCLA | Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 34.4#36 | 20.3#119 |
| Points allowed per game | 15.3#12 | 15.7#15 |
| Yards per play | 6.38#43 | 5.10#127 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.92#20 | 4.54#5 |
| Rushing yards per game | 239.3#10 | 144.0#105 |
| Net passing yards per game | 194.3#104 | 158.6#128 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 107.7#10 | 109.0#12 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 194.0#49 | 166.0#16 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00#93 | 1.14#105 |
| Takeaways per game | 2.43#2 | 1.29#23 |
| Sacks per game | 2.29#54 | 2.14#58 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.29#38 | 1.86#69 |
| Stat | UCLA | Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.11#54 | +0.02#102 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.17#3 | -0.17#2 |
| Success rate | 46.7%#35 | 40.1%#108 |
| Success rate allowed | 33.3%#2 | 34.7%#9 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.7%#45 | 10.4%#124 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.1%#57 | 8.1%#6 |
| Havoc rate | 16.7%#15 | 14.9%#47 |
| Havoc allowed | 12.8%#55 | 15.3%#116 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.78#96 | 3.30#125 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.68#53 | 3.31#24 |
| Average starting field position | own 35#3 | own 30#66 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 26#14 | own 30#94 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 68.0#49 | 59.3#125 |
| Stat | UCLA | Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.17#19 | +0.01#104 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.03#97 | +0.03#96 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.05#28 | -0.16#3 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.28#1 | -0.19#6 |
| Rushing success rate | 52.7%#3 | 40.3%#103 |
| Passing success rate | 38.7%#103 | 39.9%#90 |
| Run stuff rate | 13.3%#15 | 15.3%#36 |
| Passing-down success rate | 30.7%#75 | 35.8%#29 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 17.5%#1 | 24.2%#11 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 47.4%#27 | 40.0%#79 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 28.6%#4 | 34.7%#32 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 62.4%#68 | 55.6%#102 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 50.0%#35 | 43.8%#13 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: UCLA schedule · Michigan schedule · all Week 12 projections
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