Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Michigan 28.2, Western Michigan 20.2 at Michigan Stadium in Week 1. That is a solid edge: Michigan wins about 70% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 8 points and 48.4 combined points.
Western Michigan has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. Michigan has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
Expect Western Michigan to find it hard going: Michigan's strong defense (18th) outranks Western Michigan's middle-of-the-pack offense (78th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 25.6 points against an average defense). Michigan's middle-of-the-pack offense (67th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 26.8 points against an average defense) meets Western Michigan's middle-of-the-pack defense (60th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Michigan puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Western Michigan by 15 and Michigan by 31 about 80% of the time.
Michigan gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Michigan by about 5.9. The game is on NBC.
Result: Western Michigan 12, Michigan 13. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 7 points and the total by 23.4.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Western Michigan / Michigan) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Michigan -26.5 → Michigan -27.5 | 47.5 → 50 | +1650 / -6750 |
| Bovada | Michigan -26.5 → Michigan -27.5 | 47.5 → 49.5 | +1300 / -7000 |
| DraftKings | Michigan -26.5 → Michigan -27.5 | 50.5 | +2000 / -6500 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Michigan win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Michigan -8 | 48.4 | 70% |
| Market consensus | Michigan -27.5 | 50.0 | 94% |
| Blended projection | Michigan -24.5 | 50.7 | 95% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Michigan win probability
- model 70% · market (no-vig) 94% · difference -24 pts
- Margin
- model Michigan -8 · market Michigan -27.5 · difference -19.5 pts (Michigan view)
- Total
- model 48.4 · market 50 · difference -1.6
Model margin is 19.5 pts more toward Western Michigan than the market.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Western Michigan 20.2, Michigan 28.2 | Michigan 70%right winner | 7.0 | 23.4 |
| New formula | Western Michigan 15.3, Michigan 38.7 | Michigan 91%right winner | 22.4 | 28.9 |
Final: Western Michigan 12, Michigan 13. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Western Michigan vs Michigan: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Western Michigan | Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 24.9#88 | 27.5#69 |
| Points allowed per game | 17.4#9 | 20.4#29 |
| Yards per play | 5.10#126 | 6.23#37 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.39#38 | 5.00#13 |
| Rushing yards per game | 221.9#14 | 217.7#16 |
| Net passing yards per game | 122.6#133 | 182.6#111 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 155.1#57 | 132.9#23 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 178.7#17 | 194.5#35 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.79#30 | 0.92#44 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.43#24 | 1.23#45 |
| Sacks per game | 3.00#4 | 2.23#47 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.64#52 | 1.62#49 |
| Stat | Western Michigan | Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.01#96 | +0.07#43 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.07#27 | -0.00#61 |
| Success rate | 43.3%#56 | 45.1%#41 |
| Success rate allowed | 37.2%#20 | 42.6%#80 |
| Explosive play rate | 10.7%#121 | 13.0%#51 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.0%#37 | 10.9%#36 |
| Havoc rate | 13.8%#35 | 12.6%#65 |
| Havoc allowed | 10.5%#25 | 9.6%#13 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.34#123 | 4.03#65 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.32#16 | 4.08#93 |
| Average starting field position | own 33#10 | own 31#33 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 28#34 | own 28#47 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 67.6#53 | 64.2#95 |
| Stat | Western Michigan | Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.01#86 | +0.16#10 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.07#106 | -0.03#95 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.02#79 | -0.01#57 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.17#16 | +0.01#72 |
| Rushing success rate | 47.7%#23 | 49.2%#12 |
| Passing success rate | 36.2%#116 | 40.2%#81 |
| Run stuff rate | 16.7%#44 | 13.1%#4 |
| Passing-down success rate | 24.6%#124 | 30.8%#69 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 28.7%#58 | 32.8%#109 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 41.3%#64 | 47.2%#22 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 33.3%#13 | 40.4%#68 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 57.9%#90 | 62.7%#55 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 47.6%#11 | 53.8%#25 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Western Michigan schedule · Michigan schedule · all Week 1 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.