Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Michigan 28.3, UTEP 16.6 at Michigan Stadium in Week 3. That is a solid edge: Michigan wins about 78% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 11.7 points and 44.9 combined points. Tags: leans low scoring.
UTEP is 1-1, scoring 25.5 and allowing 30.5 points per game (-5 per game). Michigan (No. 19) is 2-0, scoring 15 and allowing 11 points per game (+4 per game).
Michigan's strong defense (16th) should limit UTEP's struggling offense (123rd of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 20.4 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: Michigan's middle-of-the-pack offense (50th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 28.6 points against an average defense) against UTEP's struggling defense (132nd).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between UTEP by 11 and Michigan by 34 about 80% of the time.
Michigan gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Michigan by about 9.6. The game is on BTN.
Result: UTEP 17, Michigan 52. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 23.3 points and the total by 24.1.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (UTEP / Michigan) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Michigan -36.75 → Michigan -34.5 | 49.5 → 48.5 | — / — |
| DraftKings | Michigan -36.5 → Michigan -34.5 | 49.5 → 48.5 | — / — |
| Bovada | Michigan -37 → Michigan -34.5 | 49.5 → 48.5 | — / — |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Michigan win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Michigan -11.5 | 44.9 | 78% |
| Market consensus | Michigan -34.5 | 48.5 | 99% |
| Blended projection | Michigan -31 | 49.2 | 98% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Michigan win probability
- model 78% · market (no-vig) —
- Margin
- model Michigan -11.7 · market Michigan -34.5 · difference -22.8 pts (Michigan view)
- Total
- model 44.9 · market 48.5 · difference -3.6
Model margin is 22.8 pts more toward UTEP than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | UTEP 16.6, Michigan 28.3 | Michigan 78%right winner | 23.3 | 24.1 |
| New formula | UTEP 10.0, Michigan 39.2 | Michigan 97%right winner | 5.9 | 19.8 |
Final: UTEP 17, Michigan 52. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
UTEP vs Michigan: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | UTEP | Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 25.5#92 | 15.0#133 |
| Points allowed per game | 30.5#118 | 11.0#19 |
| Yards per play | 6.61#52 | 5.15#120 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.43#80 | 4.23#22 |
| Rushing yards per game | 202.0#48 | 127.5#114 |
| Net passing yards per game | 151.5#122 | 137.5#128 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 154.0#94 | 137.0#80 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 163.5#42 | 133.5#22 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.50#66 | 0.50#48 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00#81 | 1.00#62 |
| Sacks per game | 1.50#100 | 2.50#42 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.50#115 | 1.50#69 |
| Stat | UTEP | Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.04#95 | +0.02#105 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.12#115 | -0.14#12 |
| Success rate | 46.7%#32 | 35.0%#128 |
| Success rate allowed | 42.2%#100 | 33.6%#19 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.0%#70 | 9.7%#117 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.5%#121 | 7.8%#11 |
| Havoc rate | 13.9%#79 | 14.8%#60 |
| Havoc allowed | 16.8%#124 | 14.6%#100 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.09#79 | 3.43#116 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.12#95 | 2.44#5 |
| Average starting field position | own 33#42 | own 24#134 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 34#119 | own 29#72 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 53.5#131 | 51.5#135 |
| Stat | UTEP | Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.06#73 | +0.00#100 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.02#95 | +0.05#81 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.00#77 | -0.01#66 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.29#124 | -0.29#6 |
| Rushing success rate | 45.9%#64 | 33.3%#125 |
| Passing success rate | 51.6%#30 | 37.2%#104 |
| Run stuff rate | 23.0%#122 | 10.0%#7 |
| Passing-down success rate | 33.7%#50 | 33.3%#54 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 38.6%#126 | 21.4%#21 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 31.8%#122 | 31.8%#121 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 44.4%#108 | 40.0%#81 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 51.6%#109 | 66.7%#56 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 46.5%#32 | 0.0%#2 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: UTEP schedule · Michigan schedule · all Week 3 projections
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