Matchup analysis
Our model projects Michigan 31, Rutgers 22 at SHI Stadium in Week 9. That is a solid edge: Michigan wins about 72% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 8.9 points and 53.2 combined points.
Michigan is 4-3 against the 15th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 20.3 and allowing 15.7 points per game (+4.6 per game). Rutgers is 2-5 against the 51st-toughest schedule so far, scoring 28.7 and allowing 33.3 points per game (-4.6 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Michigan's middle-of-the-pack offense (67th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 26.8 points against an average defense) against Rutgers's below-average defense (104th). Michigan's strong defense (18th) should limit Rutgers's middle-of-the-pack offense (54th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 28.2 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Michigan by 31 and Rutgers by 14 about 80% of the time.
Rutgers gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Michigan is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on BTN.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Michigan / Rutgers) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Michigan -14 | 46.5 | -625 / +445 |
| FanDuel | Michigan -14.5 | 46.5 | -670 / +470 |
| DraftKings | Michigan -14 | 46.5 | -600 / +440 |
| theScore Bet | Michigan -14.5 | 46.5 | -650 / +425 |
| BetRivers | Michigan -13.5 | 46.5 | -715 / +460 |
| BetMGM | Michigan -14 | 46.5 | -600 / +450 |
| Hard Rock Bet | Michigan -13.5 | 46.5 | -700 / +450 |
| Pinnacle | Michigan -14 | 47 | -593 / +429 |
| Bovada | Michigan -14 | 46.5 | -600 / +425 |
This game's lines: The Odds API · read Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Rutgers win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Michigan -9 | 53.2 | 28% |
| Market consensus | Michigan -14 | 46.5 | 18% |
| Blended projection | Michigan -13 | 48.0 | 18% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Rutgers win probability
- model 28% · market (no-vig) 18% · difference +10 pts
- Margin
- model Michigan -8.9 · market Michigan -14 · difference +5.1 pts (Rutgers view)
- Total
- model 53.2 · market 46.5 · difference +6.7
Prediction exchange (Kalshi) price implies Rutgers 15%.
Model margin is 5.1 pts more toward Rutgers than the market.
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Michigan vs Rutgers: stat comparison
| Stat | Michigan | Rutgers |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 20.3#119 | 28.7#69 |
| Points allowed per game | 15.7#15 | 33.3#128 |
| Yards per play | 5.10#127 | 6.30#50 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.54#5 | 6.92#132 |
| Rushing yards per game | 144.0#105 | 167.9#68 |
| Net passing yards per game | 158.6#128 | 250.4#43 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 109.0#12 | 206.3#127 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 166.0#16 | 215.0#85 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.14#105 | 2.00#138 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.29#23 | 0.71#93 |
| Sacks per game | 2.14#58 | 1.43#111 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.86#69 | 2.57#117 |
| Stat | Michigan | Rutgers |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.02#102 | +0.08#73 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.17#2 | +0.25#137 |
| Success rate | 40.1%#108 | 44.2%#53 |
| Success rate allowed | 34.7%#9 | 49.5%#136 |
| Explosive play rate | 10.4%#124 | 12.7%#68 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 8.1%#6 | 17.4%#136 |
| Havoc rate | 14.9%#47 | 12.7%#102 |
| Havoc allowed | 15.3%#116 | 15.5%#120 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.30#125 | 3.98#83 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.31#24 | 4.74#131 |
| Average starting field position | own 30#66 | own 29#93 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 30#94 | own 32#121 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 59.3#125 | 66.4#67 |
| Stat | Michigan | Rutgers |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.01#104 | +0.11#52 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.03#96 | +0.04#89 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.16#3 | +0.32#138 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.19#6 | +0.17#113 |
| Rushing success rate | 40.3%#103 | 46.4%#48 |
| Passing success rate | 39.9%#90 | 41.9%#65 |
| Run stuff rate | 15.3%#36 | 16.0%#49 |
| Passing-down success rate | 35.8%#29 | 37.5%#18 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 24.2%#11 | 36.7%#125 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 40.0%#79 | 40.4%#76 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 34.7%#32 | 42.5%#105 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 55.6%#102 | 65.5%#50 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 43.8%#13 | 65.6%#97 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Michigan schedule · Rutgers schedule · all Week 9 projections
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