Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Indiana 29.4, Michigan 16.4 at Michigan Stadium in Week 8. That is a solid edge: Indiana wins about 80% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 13 points and 45.7 combined points. Tags: leans low scoring.
Indiana (No. 6) is 6-1, scoring 36.6 and allowing 12.9 points per game (+23.7 per game). Michigan is 4-2, scoring 22.7 and allowing 16.2 points per game (+6.5 per game).
Indiana's elite offense (9th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 36.1 points against an average defense) meets Michigan's strong defense (18th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Indiana puts up. Expect Michigan to find it hard going: Indiana's elite defense (1st) outranks Michigan's middle-of-the-pack offense (67th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 26.8 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Indiana by 36 and Michigan by 10 about 80% of the time.
Michigan gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Indiana is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on Fox.
Result: Indiana 13, Michigan 6. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 6 points and the total by 26.7.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Indiana / Michigan) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Indiana -7.5 | 43.5 | -298 / +240 |
| Opening line | Indiana -6 | 52.5 | -258 / +210 |
| DraftKings | Indiana -7.5 | 43.5 | -298 / +240 |
| FanDuel | Indiana -7.5 | 43.5 | -315 / +250 |
| BetRivers | Indiana -8 | 43.5 | -345 / +260 |
| BetMGM | Indiana -7.5 | 43.5 | -295 / +240 |
This game's lines: Action Network · read Oct 25, 4:43 AM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Michigan win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Indiana -13 | 45.7 | 20% |
| Market consensus | Indiana -7.5 | 43.5 | 28% |
| Blended projection | Indiana -8.5 | 44.9 | 28% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Michigan win probability
- model 20% · market (no-vig) 28% · difference -9 pts
- Margin
- model Indiana -13 · market Indiana -7.5 · difference -5.5 pts (Michigan view)
- Total
- model 45.7 · market 43.5 · difference +2.2
Model margin is 5.5 pts more toward Indiana than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Indiana 29.4, Michigan 16.4 | Indiana 80%right winner | 6.0 | 26.7 |
| New formula | Not recorded for this game | |||
Final: Indiana 13, Michigan 6. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Indiana vs Michigan: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Indiana | Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 41.6#3 | 27.5#69 |
| Points allowed per game | 11.7#2 | 20.4#29 |
| Yards per play | 7.02#12 | 6.23#37 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.97#12 | 5.00#13 |
| Rushing yards per game | 227.3#12 | 217.7#16 |
| Net passing yards per game | 238.5#54 | 182.6#111 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 95.1#2 | 132.9#23 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 179.9#19 | 194.5#35 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.50#4 | 0.92#44 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.31#34 | 1.23#45 |
| Sacks per game | 2.69#15 | 2.23#47 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.56#45 | 1.62#49 |
| Stat | Indiana | Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.15#15 | +0.07#43 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.10#16 | -0.00#61 |
| Success rate | 51.2%#4 | 45.1%#41 |
| Success rate allowed | 35.4%#11 | 42.6%#80 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.8%#26 | 13.0%#51 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.6%#32 | 10.9%#36 |
| Havoc rate | 16.9%#3 | 12.6%#65 |
| Havoc allowed | 10.8%#32 | 9.6%#13 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 5.24#2 | 4.03#65 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 2.46#1 | 4.08#93 |
| Average starting field position | own 32#21 | own 31#33 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 26#2 | own 28#47 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 66.4#64 | 64.2#95 |
| Stat | Indiana | Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.06#51 | +0.16#10 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.28#4 | -0.03#95 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.12#12 | -0.01#57 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.08#33 | +0.01#72 |
| Rushing success rate | 47.5%#27 | 49.2%#12 |
| Passing success rate | 55.9%#2 | 40.2%#81 |
| Run stuff rate | 13.6%#9 | 13.1%#4 |
| Passing-down success rate | 39.7%#5 | 30.8%#69 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 27.4%#31 | 32.8%#109 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 58.1%#1 | 47.2%#22 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 32.8%#10 | 40.4%#68 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 73.7%#11 | 62.7%#55 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 40.0%#3 | 53.8%#25 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Indiana schedule · Michigan schedule · all Week 8 projections
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