Matchup analysis
Our model projects Oregon 30, Michigan 16 at Autzen Stadium in Week 11. That is a solid edge: Oregon wins about 83% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 14.3 points and 45.9 combined points.
Michigan is 4-3 against the 10th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 20.3 and allowing 15.7 points per game (+4.6 per game). Oregon is 4-3 against the 11th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 33.1 and allowing 20.7 points per game (+12.4 per game).
Expect Michigan to find it hard going: Oregon's elite defense (10th) outranks Michigan's middle-of-the-pack offense (67th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 26.8 points against an average defense). Oregon's elite offense (8th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 36.4 points against an average defense) meets Michigan's strong defense (18th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Oregon puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Michigan by 8 and Oregon by 37 about 80% of the time.
Oregon gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Oregon by about 12.2.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Michigan / Oregon) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Oregon -13.5 | 53.5 | +440 / -600 |
| DraftKings | Oregon -13.5 | 53.5 | +440 / -600 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Oregon win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Oregon -14.5 | 45.9 | 83% |
| Market consensus | Oregon -13.5 | 53.5 | 82% |
| Blended projection | Oregon -13.5 | 53.6 | 82% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Oregon win probability
- model 83% · market (no-vig) 82% · difference +0 pts
- Margin
- model Oregon -14.3 · market Oregon -13.5 · difference +0.8 pts (Oregon view)
- Total
- model 45.9 · market 53.5 · difference -7.6
Model margin is 0.8 pts more toward Oregon than the market.
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Michigan vs Oregon: stat comparison
| Stat | Michigan | Oregon |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 20.3#119 | 33.1#41 |
| Points allowed per game | 15.7#15 | 20.7#40 |
| Yards per play | 5.10#127 | 5.96#74 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.54#5 | 5.31#49 |
| Rushing yards per game | 144.0#105 | 151.9#97 |
| Net passing yards per game | 158.6#128 | 264.4#31 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 109.0#12 | 146.9#60 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 166.0#16 | 199.6#53 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.14#105 | 0.86#58 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.29#23 | 1.43#13 |
| Sacks per game | 2.14#58 | 2.14#59 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.86#69 | 1.57#52 |
| Stat | Michigan | Oregon |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.02#102 | +0.03#100 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.17#2 | -0.08#15 |
| Success rate | 40.1%#108 | 41.1%#97 |
| Success rate allowed | 34.7%#9 | 36.6%#23 |
| Explosive play rate | 10.4%#124 | 12.5%#71 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 8.1%#6 | 10.4%#32 |
| Havoc rate | 14.9%#47 | 15.7%#28 |
| Havoc allowed | 15.3%#116 | 13.6%#80 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.30#125 | 4.84#17 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.31#24 | 3.85#74 |
| Average starting field position | own 30#66 | own 32#28 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 30#94 | own 29#67 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 59.3#125 | 69.9#24 |
| Stat | Michigan | Oregon |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.01#104 | +0.07#79 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.03#96 | +0.01#101 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.16#3 | -0.01#50 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.19#6 | -0.16#9 |
| Rushing success rate | 40.3%#103 | 44.6%#69 |
| Passing success rate | 39.9%#90 | 38.5%#105 |
| Run stuff rate | 15.3%#36 | 15.5%#39 |
| Passing-down success rate | 35.8%#29 | 27.7%#107 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 24.2%#11 | 27.5%#43 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 40.0%#79 | 36.1%#107 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 34.7%#32 | 30.4%#10 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 55.6%#102 | 72.4%#23 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 43.8%#13 | 47.8%#27 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Michigan schedule · Oregon schedule · all Week 11 projections
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