Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Nebraska 27.9, Michigan State 22.4 at Spartan Stadium in Week 4. That is a lean: Nebraska wins about 64% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 5.5 points and 50.2 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Nebraska is 3-0, scoring 46.3 and allowing 11.7 points per game (+34.6 per game). Michigan State is 2-1, scoring 25 and allowing 18 points per game (+7 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Nebraska's strong offense (25th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 32.2 points against an average defense) against Michigan State's middle-of-the-pack defense (52nd). Nebraska's strong defense (28th) should limit Michigan State's below-average offense (87th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 24.9 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Nebraska by 28 and Michigan State by 17 about 80% of the time.
Michigan State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Nebraska is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on BTN.
Result: Nebraska 31, Michigan State 13. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 12.5 points and the total by 6.2.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Nebraska / Michigan State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Nebraska -5.5 → Nebraska -6 | 50.5 → 48.5 | -222.5 / +182.5 |
| DraftKings | Nebraska -5.5 → Nebraska -6 | 52.5 → 48.5 | -225 / +185 |
| Bovada | Nebraska -5.5 → Nebraska -6 | 48.5 | -220 / +180 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Michigan State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Nebraska -5.5 | 50.2 | 36% |
| Market consensus | Nebraska -6 | 48.5 | 34% |
| Blended projection | Nebraska -6 | 49.5 | 34% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Michigan State win probability
- model 36% · market (no-vig) 34% · difference +2 pts
- Margin
- model Nebraska -5.5 · market Nebraska -6 · difference +0.5 pts (Michigan State view)
- Total
- model 50.2 · market 48.5 · difference +1.7
Model margin is 0.5 pts more toward Michigan State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Nebraska 27.9, Michigan State 22.4 | Nebraska 64%right winner | 12.5 | 6.2 |
| New formula | Nebraska 28.0, Michigan State 22.7 | Nebraska 64%right winner | 12.6 | 6.7 |
Final: Nebraska 31, Michigan State 13. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Nebraska vs Michigan State: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Nebraska | Michigan State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 46.3#11 | 25.0#100 |
| Points allowed per game | 11.7#16 | 18.0#47 |
| Yards per play | 7.39#17 | 5.27#113 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.58#29 | 5.57#81 |
| Rushing yards per game | 269.3#11 | 172.7#75 |
| Net passing yards per game | 243.3#58 | 177.0#105 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 129.0#58 | 127.0#56 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 124.3#11 | 170.0#43 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.33#28 | 0.67#60 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00#60 | 0.67#90 |
| Sacks per game | 2.67#28 | 2.33#39 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.00#42 | 3.00#126 |
| Stat | Nebraska | Michigan State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.18#34 | +0.01#105 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.03#40 | +0.08#95 |
| Success rate | 44.5%#59 | 43.4%#72 |
| Success rate allowed | 36.6%#29 | 41.4%#87 |
| Explosive play rate | 14.2%#47 | 10.1%#117 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.3%#68 | 10.8%#56 |
| Havoc rate | 15.1%#51 | 15.9%#41 |
| Havoc allowed | 12.4%#59 | 15.9%#118 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.66#34 | 3.75#103 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.14#90 | 3.73#60 |
| Average starting field position | own 29#90 | own 34#24 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 27#50 | own 28#58 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 69.3#39 | 66.3#63 |
| Stat | Nebraska | Michigan State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.19#20 | -0.06#121 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.16#59 | +0.10#76 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.01#61 | +0.02#77 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.05#44 | +0.15#103 |
| Rushing success rate | 54.3%#9 | 42.7%#92 |
| Passing success rate | 47.3%#46 | 44.2%#66 |
| Run stuff rate | 15.6%#55 | 18.0%#87 |
| Passing-down success rate | 36.6%#36 | 27.1%#106 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 22.0%#14 | 26.0%#45 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 55.3%#14 | 44.2%#59 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 28.2%#19 | 36.4%#62 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 74.4%#26 | 63.6%#77 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 71.7%#113 | 71.4%#110 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Nebraska schedule · Michigan State schedule · all Week 4 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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