Matchup analysis
Our model projects Rutgers 29, Michigan State 28 at SHI Stadium in Week 13. That is a genuine toss-up: Rutgers wins about 54% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1.4 points and 56.5 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Michigan State is 2-6 against the 7th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 19.9 and allowing 25.8 points per game (-5.9 per game). Rutgers is 2-5 against the 51st-toughest schedule so far, scoring 28.7 and allowing 33.3 points per game (-4.6 per game).
Michigan State's below-average offense (98th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 23.6 points against an average defense) meets Rutgers's below-average defense (104th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Michigan State puts up. Rutgers's middle-of-the-pack offense (54th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 28.2 points against an average defense) meets Michigan State's middle-of-the-pack defense (61st) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Rutgers puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Michigan State by 21 and Rutgers by 24 about 80% of the time.
Rutgers gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Michigan State would be favoured by 0.7.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Michigan State vs Rutgers: stat comparison
| Stat | Michigan State | Rutgers |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 19.9#125 | 28.7#69 |
| Points allowed per game | 25.8#87 | 33.3#128 |
| Yards per play | 4.82#135 | 6.30#50 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.66#72 | 6.92#132 |
| Rushing yards per game | 130.9#117 | 167.9#68 |
| Net passing yards per game | 169.1#123 | 250.4#43 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 158.3#76 | 206.3#127 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 198.1#51 | 215.0#85 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.13#98 | 2.00#138 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.38#131 | 0.71#93 |
| Sacks per game | 1.50#105 | 1.43#111 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 3.00#127 | 2.57#117 |
| Stat | Michigan State | Rutgers |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.07#133 | +0.08#73 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.07#82 | +0.25#137 |
| Success rate | 41.7%#87 | 44.2%#53 |
| Success rate allowed | 43.6%#100 | 49.5%#136 |
| Explosive play rate | 8.2%#136 | 12.7%#68 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.4%#63 | 17.4%#136 |
| Havoc rate | 12.2%#112 | 12.7%#102 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.8%#84 | 15.5%#120 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.53#110 | 3.98#83 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.02#90 | 4.74#131 |
| Average starting field position | own 32#21 | own 29#93 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 31#107 | own 32#121 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 62.3#105 | 66.4#67 |
| Stat | Michigan State | Rutgers |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.05#123 | +0.11#52 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.10#126 | +0.04#89 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.01#57 | +0.32#138 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.15#100 | +0.17#113 |
| Rushing success rate | 41.7%#94 | 46.4%#48 |
| Passing success rate | 41.7%#66 | 41.9%#65 |
| Run stuff rate | 16.2%#54 | 16.0%#49 |
| Passing-down success rate | 31.2%#70 | 37.5%#18 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 30.6%#77 | 36.7%#125 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 36.6%#102 | 40.4%#76 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 43.7%#115 | 42.5%#105 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 58.3%#90 | 65.5%#50 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 58.6%#67 | 65.6%#97 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Michigan State schedule · Rutgers schedule · all Week 13 projections
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