Matchup analysis
Our model projects Washington 28, Michigan State 21 at Spartan Stadium in Week 11. That is a solid edge: Washington wins about 69% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 7.4 points and 49.2 combined points.
Washington is 4-3 against the 81st-toughest schedule so far, scoring 27.9 and allowing 22.7 points per game (+5.2 per game). Michigan State is 2-6 against the 2nd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 19.9 and allowing 25.8 points per game (-5.9 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Washington's strong offense (40th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 30 points against an average defense) against Michigan State's middle-of-the-pack defense (61st). Washington's strong defense (40th) should limit Michigan State's below-average offense (98th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 23.6 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Washington by 30 and Michigan State by 15 about 80% of the time.
Michigan State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Washington is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Washington vs Michigan State: stat comparison
| Stat | Washington | Michigan State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 27.9#76 | 19.9#125 |
| Points allowed per game | 22.7#57 | 25.8#87 |
| Yards per play | 6.08#61 | 4.82#135 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.47#62 | 5.66#72 |
| Rushing yards per game | 122.4#127 | 130.9#117 |
| Net passing yards per game | 262.6#32 | 169.1#123 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 141.3#51 | 158.3#76 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 205.9#69 | 198.1#51 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.86#59 | 1.13#98 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.43#14 | 0.38#131 |
| Sacks per game | 1.86#82 | 1.50#105 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 3.00#128 | 3.00#127 |
| Stat | Washington | Michigan State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.06#83 | -0.07#133 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.01#40 | +0.07#82 |
| Success rate | 43.9%#60 | 41.7%#87 |
| Success rate allowed | 39.7%#49 | 43.6%#100 |
| Explosive play rate | 14.0%#35 | 8.2%#136 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.9%#43 | 11.4%#63 |
| Havoc rate | 16.8%#14 | 12.2%#112 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.3%#71 | 13.8%#84 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.36#46 | 3.53#110 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.95#85 | 4.02#90 |
| Average starting field position | own 28#104 | own 32#21 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 30#97 | own 31#107 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 63.3#95 | 62.3#105 |
| Stat | Washington | Michigan State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.02#117 | -0.05#123 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.12#62 | -0.10#126 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.06#26 | +0.01#57 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.04#65 | +0.15#100 |
| Rushing success rate | 40.6%#100 | 41.7%#94 |
| Passing success rate | 46.3%#34 | 41.7%#66 |
| Run stuff rate | 20.2%#117 | 16.2%#54 |
| Passing-down success rate | 27.3%#114 | 31.2%#70 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 29.1%#64 | 30.6%#77 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 34.5%#118 | 36.6%#102 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 32.6%#17 | 43.7%#115 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 62.1%#69 | 58.3%#90 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 61.1%#80 | 58.6%#67 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Washington schedule · Michigan State schedule · all Week 11 projections
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