Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Notre Dame 30.5, Michigan State 19.1 at Notre Dame Stadium in Week 3. That is a solid edge: Notre Dame wins about 77% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 11.4 points and 49.6 combined points.
Michigan State is 2-0, scoring 32.5 and allowing 13.5 points per game (+19 per game). Notre Dame (No. 3) is 2-0, scoring 46.5 and allowing 6.5 points per game (+40 per game).
Expect Michigan State to find it hard going: Notre Dame's elite defense (2nd) outranks Michigan State's below-average offense (83rd of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 25.1 points against an average defense). Notre Dame's elite offense (2nd of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 43 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Michigan State's middle-of-the-pack defense (66th); that mismatch is where most of Notre Dame's projected points come from.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Michigan State by 11 and Notre Dame by 34 about 80% of the time.
Notre Dame gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Notre Dame by about 9.3. The game is on NBC.
Result: Michigan State 10, Notre Dame 27. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 5.6 points and the total by 12.6.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Michigan State / Notre Dame) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Notre Dame -29.75 → Notre Dame -28.75 | 52.75 → 51.5 | +1700 / -7500 |
| Bovada | Notre Dame -30 → Notre Dame -29 | 52 → 51.5 | +1600 / -10000 |
| DraftKings | Notre Dame -29.5 → Notre Dame -28.5 | 53.5 → 51.5 | +1800 / -5000 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Notre Dame win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Notre Dame -11.5 | 49.6 | 77% |
| Market consensus | Notre Dame -29 | 51.5 | 95% |
| Blended projection | Notre Dame -26 | 52.1 | 96% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Notre Dame win probability
- model 77% · market (no-vig) 95% · difference -17 pts
- Margin
- model Notre Dame -11.4 · market Notre Dame -28.75 · difference -17.3 pts (Notre Dame view)
- Total
- model 49.6 · market 51.5 · difference -1.9
Model margin is 17.3 pts more toward Michigan State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Michigan State 19.1, Notre Dame 30.5 | Notre Dame 77%right winner | 5.6 | 12.6 |
| New formula | Michigan State 7.8, Notre Dame 46.3 | Notre Dame 99%right winner | 21.5 | 17.0 |
Final: Michigan State 10, Notre Dame 27. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Michigan State vs Notre Dame: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Michigan State | Notre Dame |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 32.5#63 | 46.5#23 |
| Points allowed per game | 13.5#37 | 6.5#6 |
| Yards per play | 5.71#100 | 6.62#50 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.33#72 | 4.54#33 |
| Rushing yards per game | 219.5#39 | 118.0#121 |
| Net passing yards per game | 217.0#81 | 295.5#27 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 109.5#46 | 72.5#10 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 138.5#24 | 159.0#38 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.00#13 | 0.00#19 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00#63 | 0.50#101 |
| Sacks per game | 3.00#23 | 1.50#85 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.50#108 | 0.50#21 |
| Stat | Michigan State | Notre Dame |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.05#89 | +0.15#37 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.13#118 | -0.10#21 |
| Success rate | 45.9%#39 | 50.9%#11 |
| Success rate allowed | 36.2%#32 | 28.5%#5 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.2%#99 | 15.9%#20 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.3%#92 | 9.2%#23 |
| Havoc rate | 18.6%#19 | 15.8%#48 |
| Havoc allowed | 12.1%#52 | 9.6%#18 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.60#109 | 5.01#19 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.53#54 | 2.34#4 |
| Average starting field position | own 37#13 | own 31#69 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 26#37 | own 28#63 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 76.5#13 | 62.5#91 |
| Stat | Michigan State | Notre Dame |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.10#121 | -0.04#111 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.23#34 | +0.33#17 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.23#132 | -0.08#39 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.04#79 | -0.13#23 |
| Rushing success rate | 45.0%#70 | 47.6%#53 |
| Passing success rate | 47.6%#51 | 59.6%#12 |
| Run stuff rate | 16.0%#50 | 9.4%#6 |
| Passing-down success rate | 29.4%#92 | 26.6%#107 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 26.9%#49 | 20.8%#18 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 46.9%#51 | 47.6%#50 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 38.1%#72 | 30.4%#40 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 65.9%#65 | 68.6%#51 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 97.3%#129 | 16.7%#4 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Michigan State schedule · Notre Dame schedule · all Week 3 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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