Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Michigan State 30.3, Eastern Michigan 21.5 at Spartan Stadium in Week 2. That is a solid edge: Michigan State wins about 72% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 8.7 points and 51.8 combined points.
Eastern Michigan is 1-1, scoring 24.5 and allowing 22 points per game (+2.5 per game). Michigan State is 1-0, scoring 30 and allowing 20 points per game (+10 per game).
Expect Eastern Michigan to find it hard going: Michigan State's middle-of-the-pack defense (79th) outranks Eastern Michigan's struggling offense (119th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 21.4 points against an average defense). Michigan State's below-average offense (83rd of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 25.1 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Eastern Michigan's below-average defense (114th); that mismatch is where most of Michigan State's projected points come from.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Eastern Michigan by 14 and Michigan State by 31 about 80% of the time.
Michigan State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Michigan State by about 6.6. The game is on BTN.
Result: Eastern Michigan 7, Michigan State 35. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 19.3 points and the total by 9.8.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Eastern Michigan / Michigan State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Michigan State -16.25 → Michigan State -17.5 | 51.25 → 49.75 | +612.5 / -950 |
| Bovada | Michigan State -17 → Michigan State -17.5 | 51 → 50 | +625 / -1000 |
| DraftKings | Michigan State -15.5 → Michigan State -17.5 | 51.5 → 49.5 | +600 / -900 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Michigan State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Michigan State -8.5 | 51.8 | 72% |
| Market consensus | Michigan State -17.5 | 49.8 | 87% |
| Blended projection | Michigan State -16 | 50.7 | 86% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Michigan State win probability
- model 72% · market (no-vig) 87% · difference -15 pts
- Margin
- model Michigan State -8.7 · market Michigan State -17.5 · difference -8.8 pts (Michigan State view)
- Total
- model 51.8 · market 49.75 · difference +2.0
Model margin is 8.8 pts more toward Eastern Michigan than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Eastern Michigan 21.5, Michigan State 30.3 | Michigan State 72%right winner | 19.3 | 9.8 |
| New formula | Eastern Michigan 19.2, Michigan State 34.2 | Michigan State 82%right winner | 13.0 | 11.5 |
Final: Eastern Michigan 7, Michigan State 35. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Eastern Michigan vs Michigan State: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Eastern Michigan | Michigan State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 24.1#92 | 24.6#89 |
| Points allowed per game | 29.8#102 | 29.9#104 |
| Yards per play | 5.98#62 | 5.49#103 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.43#123 | 6.10#99 |
| Rushing yards per game | 150.5#88 | 146.8#95 |
| Net passing yards per game | 253.7#40 | 204.8#92 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 245.7#136 | 161.3#69 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 198.3#39 | 226.8#90 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.08#85 | 0.75#21 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.75#115 | 0.50#131 |
| Sacks per game | 1.17#127 | 1.83#85 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 0.83#7 | 2.75#120 |
| Stat | Eastern Michigan | Michigan State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.07#44 | +0.02#76 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.14#131 | +0.11#119 |
| Success rate | 42.6%#62 | 41.9%#77 |
| Success rate allowed | 45.1%#118 | 45.9%#124 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.2%#75 | 11.6%#90 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 15.4%#131 | 13.5%#109 |
| Havoc rate | 9.8%#127 | 10.8%#113 |
| Havoc allowed | 9.4%#10 | 15.7%#130 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.33#31 | 4.03#64 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.10#98 | 4.51#126 |
| Average starting field position | own 25#136 | own 29#85 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 31#100 | own 33#130 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 67.6#54 | 64.1#96 |
| Stat | Eastern Michigan | Michigan State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.04#63 | +0.03#66 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.09#43 | +0.01#79 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.10#123 | +0.05#101 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.20#126 | +0.16#121 |
| Rushing success rate | 44.4%#57 | 42.8%#73 |
| Passing success rate | 39.9%#87 | 41.1%#67 |
| Run stuff rate | 17.9%#63 | 23.8%#133 |
| Passing-down success rate | 31.6%#55 | 29.9%#78 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 36.4%#129 | 31.0%#87 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 42.2%#54 | 38.1%#98 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 46.8%#126 | 42.5%#94 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 63.0%#53 | 62.5%#58 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 67.9%#116 | 67.3%#112 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Eastern Michigan schedule · Michigan State schedule · all Week 2 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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