Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Illinois 26.4, Michigan State 22.9 at Spartan Stadium in Week 6. That is a lean: Illinois wins about 59% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3.5 points and 49.2 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Illinois is 2-3, scoring 30.6 and allowing 26 points per game (+4.6 per game). Michigan State is 2-3, scoring 18.2 and allowing 23.2 points per game (-5 per game).
Illinois's middle-of-the-pack offense (53rd of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 28.5 points against an average defense) meets Michigan State's middle-of-the-pack defense (54th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Illinois puts up. Illinois's middle-of-the-pack defense (62nd) should limit Michigan State's below-average offense (101st of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 22.4 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Illinois by 26 and Michigan State by 19 about 80% of the time.
Michigan State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Illinois is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on FS1.
Result: Illinois 38, Michigan State 37. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 2.5 points and the total by 25.8.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Illinois / Michigan State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Illinois -3 → Illinois -2.5 | 48.75 → 48.25 | -158.5 / +135 |
| Bovada | Illinois -3.5 → Illinois -2.5 | 50 → 48 | -175 / +150 |
| DraftKings | Illinois -2.5 | 47.5 → 48.5 | -142 / +120 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Michigan State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Illinois -3.5 | 49.2 | 41% |
| Market consensus | Illinois -2.5 | 48.3 | 41% |
| Blended projection | Illinois -2.5 | 49.2 | 43% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Michigan State win probability
- model 41% · market (no-vig) 41% · difference -0 pts
- Margin
- model Illinois -3.5 · market Illinois -2.5 · difference -1.0 pts (Michigan State view)
- Total
- model 49.2 · market 48.25 · difference +1.0
Model margin is 1.0 pts more toward Illinois than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Illinois 26.4, Michigan State 22.9 | Illinois 59%right winner | 2.5 | 25.8 |
| New formula | Illinois 26.0, Michigan State 22.8 | Illinois 58%right winner | 2.2 | 26.2 |
Final: Illinois 38, Michigan State 37. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Illinois vs Michigan State: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Illinois | Michigan State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 30.6#68 | 18.2#125 |
| Points allowed per game | 26.0#95 | 23.2#67 |
| Yards per play | 6.94#23 | 4.61#136 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.31#113 | 5.67#78 |
| Rushing yards per game | 163.8#75 | 148.6#101 |
| Net passing yards per game | 258.0#41 | 161.4#123 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 135.2#49 | 150.0#66 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 279.8#133 | 176.4#36 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.60#45 | 1.00#77 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.60#103 | 0.40#120 |
| Sacks per game | 0.60#135 | 1.40#106 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.20#36 | 3.40#130 |
| Stat | Illinois | Michigan State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.18#34 | -0.09#129 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.21#129 | +0.09#99 |
| Success rate | 49.3%#15 | 42.5%#77 |
| Success rate allowed | 46.2%#123 | 40.1%#66 |
| Explosive play rate | 15.0%#27 | 7.9%#138 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.7%#69 | 11.0%#46 |
| Havoc rate | 11.7%#116 | 13.1%#85 |
| Havoc allowed | 11.5%#36 | 15.9%#121 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.83#91 | 3.14#125 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.77#128 | 4.10#88 |
| Average starting field position | own 29#87 | own 31#58 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 28#61 | own 29#80 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 60.8#112 | 67.2#53 |
| Stat | Illinois | Michigan State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.12#50 | -0.06#123 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.22#37 | -0.11#122 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.06#82 | -0.00#51 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.39#135 | +0.21#113 |
| Rushing success rate | 47.3%#48 | 43.5%#81 |
| Passing success rate | 51.0%#18 | 41.6%#81 |
| Run stuff rate | 11.4%#7 | 17.3%#74 |
| Passing-down success rate | 42.0%#6 | 25.9%#110 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 35.2%#120 | 29.9%#75 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 47.3%#37 | 39.1%#89 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 42.4%#103 | 41.9%#98 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 64.3%#70 | 53.3%#107 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 66.7%#97 | 66.7%#98 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Illinois schedule · Michigan State schedule · all Week 6 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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