Matchup analysis
Our model projects Oregon 35, Michigan State 14 at Spartan Stadium in Week 12. That is a heavy edge: Oregon wins about 91% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 20.8 points and 49.3 combined points. Tags: favorite holds.
Oregon is 4-3 against the 11th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 33.1 and allowing 20.7 points per game (+12.4 per game). Michigan State is 2-6 against the 2nd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 19.9 and allowing 25.8 points per game (-5.9 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Oregon's elite offense (8th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 36.4 points against an average defense) against Michigan State's middle-of-the-pack defense (61st). Oregon's elite defense (10th) should limit Michigan State's below-average offense (98th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 23.6 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Oregon by 43 and Michigan State by 2 about 80% of the time.
Michigan State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Oregon is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on Fox.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Oregon vs Michigan State: stat comparison
| Stat | Oregon | Michigan State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 33.1#41 | 19.9#125 |
| Points allowed per game | 20.7#40 | 25.8#87 |
| Yards per play | 5.96#74 | 4.82#135 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.31#49 | 5.66#72 |
| Rushing yards per game | 151.9#97 | 130.9#117 |
| Net passing yards per game | 264.4#31 | 169.1#123 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 146.9#60 | 158.3#76 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 199.6#53 | 198.1#51 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.86#58 | 1.13#98 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.43#13 | 0.38#131 |
| Sacks per game | 2.14#59 | 1.50#105 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.57#52 | 3.00#127 |
| Stat | Oregon | Michigan State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.03#100 | -0.07#133 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.08#15 | +0.07#82 |
| Success rate | 41.1%#97 | 41.7%#87 |
| Success rate allowed | 36.6%#23 | 43.6%#100 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.5%#71 | 8.2%#136 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.4%#32 | 11.4%#63 |
| Havoc rate | 15.7%#28 | 12.2%#112 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.6%#80 | 13.8%#84 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.84#17 | 3.53#110 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.85#74 | 4.02#90 |
| Average starting field position | own 32#28 | own 32#21 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 29#67 | own 31#107 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 69.9#24 | 62.3#105 |
| Stat | Oregon | Michigan State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.07#79 | -0.05#123 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.01#101 | -0.10#126 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.01#50 | +0.01#57 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.16#9 | +0.15#100 |
| Rushing success rate | 44.6%#69 | 41.7%#94 |
| Passing success rate | 38.5%#105 | 41.7%#66 |
| Run stuff rate | 15.5%#39 | 16.2%#54 |
| Passing-down success rate | 27.7%#107 | 31.2%#70 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 27.5%#43 | 30.6%#77 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 36.1%#107 | 36.6%#102 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 30.4%#10 | 43.7%#115 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 72.4%#23 | 58.3%#90 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 47.8%#27 | 58.6%#67 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Oregon schedule · Michigan State schedule · all Week 12 projections
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