Matchup analysis
Our model projects UCLA 29, Illinois 23 at Rose Bowl in Week 11. That is a lean: UCLA wins about 64% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 5.5 points and 51.6 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Illinois is 4-3 against the 36th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 30.3 and allowing 25.3 points per game (+5 per game). UCLA (No. 7) is 7-0 against the 29th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 34.4 and allowing 15.3 points per game (+19.1 per game).
UCLA's strong defense (24th) should limit Illinois's strong offense (41st of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 29.9 points against an average defense). UCLA's middle-of-the-pack offense (44th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 29.6 points against an average defense) meets Illinois's middle-of-the-pack defense (51st) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points UCLA puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Illinois by 17 and UCLA by 28 about 80% of the time.
UCLA gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour UCLA by about 3.4. The game is on Fox.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Illinois vs UCLA: stat comparison
| Stat | Illinois | UCLA |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 30.3#58 | 34.4#36 |
| Points allowed per game | 25.3#81 | 15.3#12 |
| Yards per play | 6.67#25 | 6.38#43 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.21#110 | 4.92#20 |
| Rushing yards per game | 170.1#62 | 239.3#10 |
| Net passing yards per game | 239.7#52 | 194.3#104 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 141.7#53 | 107.7#10 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 261.1#128 | 194.0#49 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.71#46 | 1.00#93 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.57#111 | 2.43#2 |
| Sacks per game | 1.00#131 | 2.29#54 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.29#33 | 1.29#38 |
| Stat | Illinois | UCLA |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.13#48 | +0.11#54 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.18#125 | -0.17#3 |
| Success rate | 47.6%#25 | 46.7%#35 |
| Success rate allowed | 46.2%#127 | 33.3%#2 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.6%#49 | 13.7%#45 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.1%#56 | 11.1%#57 |
| Havoc rate | 10.6%#133 | 16.7%#15 |
| Havoc allowed | 10.9%#25 | 12.8%#55 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.18#56 | 3.78#96 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.62#122 | 3.68#53 |
| Average starting field position | own 29#95 | own 35#3 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 29#83 | own 26#14 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 61.4#114 | 68.0#49 |
| Stat | Illinois | UCLA |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.12#47 | +0.17#19 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.13#53 | +0.03#97 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.08#94 | -0.05#28 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.28#129 | -0.28#1 |
| Rushing success rate | 44.7%#66 | 52.7%#3 |
| Passing success rate | 50.2%#16 | 38.7%#103 |
| Run stuff rate | 12.0%#7 | 13.3%#15 |
| Passing-down success rate | 36.7%#22 | 30.7%#75 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 38.3%#129 | 17.5%#1 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 48.2%#22 | 47.4%#27 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 41.1%#96 | 28.6%#4 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 63.2%#63 | 62.4%#68 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 68.0%#112 | 50.0%#35 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Illinois schedule · UCLA schedule · all Week 11 projections
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