Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected UCLA 26.8, Wisconsin 20.3 at Rose Bowl in Week 7. That is a lean: UCLA wins about 67% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 6.5 points and 47.1 combined points. Tags: upset alert, leans low scoring.
Wisconsin is 4-1, scoring 31.6 and allowing 16.6 points per game (+15 per game). UCLA (No. 12) is 5-0, scoring 39.2 and allowing 18 points per game (+21.2 per game).
UCLA's strong defense (22nd) should limit Wisconsin's middle-of-the-pack offense (74th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 26 points against an average defense). UCLA's strong offense (28th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 31.7 points against an average defense) meets Wisconsin's strong defense (19th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points UCLA puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Wisconsin by 16 and UCLA by 29 about 80% of the time.
UCLA gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour UCLA by about 4.4. The game is on NBC.
Result: Wisconsin 7, UCLA 17. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 3.5 points and the total by 23.1.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Wisconsin / UCLA) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | UCLA -3.25 → UCLA -2 | 48 → 42.75 | +123.5 / -146 |
| DraftKings | UCLA -3 → UCLA -1.5 | 49.5 → 42.5 | +102 / -122 |
| Bovada | UCLA -3.5 → UCLA -2.5 | 46.5 → 43 | +145 / -170 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | UCLA win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | UCLA -6.5 | 47.1 | 67% |
| Market consensus | UCLA -2 | 42.8 | 57% |
| Blended projection | UCLA -3 | 44.4 | 57% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- UCLA win probability
- model 67% · market (no-vig) 57% · difference +10 pts
- Margin
- model UCLA -6.5 · market UCLA -2 · difference +4.5 pts (UCLA view)
- Total
- model 47.1 · market 42.75 · difference +4.4
Model margin is 4.5 pts more toward UCLA than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Wisconsin 20.3, UCLA 26.8 | UCLA 67%right winner | 3.5 | 23.1 |
| New formula | Wisconsin 19.6, UCLA 25.7 | UCLA 66%right winner | 3.9 | 21.4 |
Final: Wisconsin 7, UCLA 17. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Wisconsin vs UCLA: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Wisconsin | UCLA |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 31.6#58 | 39.2#19 |
| Points allowed per game | 16.6#24 | 18.0#30 |
| Yards per play | 6.69#33 | 6.78#28 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.27#4 | 5.09#35 |
| Rushing yards per game | 154.4#90 | 262.0#6 |
| Net passing yards per game | 249.6#50 | 182.6#109 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 125.0#34 | 103.0#13 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 150.2#12 | 231.6#103 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00#88 | 1.00#87 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.60#112 | 3.00#2 |
| Sacks per game | 1.40#109 | 1.80#88 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 0.60#11 | 1.60#63 |
| Stat | Wisconsin | UCLA |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.11#67 | +0.14#47 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.13#7 | -0.14#4 |
| Success rate | 38.7%#119 | 46.7%#41 |
| Success rate allowed | 35.9%#23 | 33.3%#7 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.7%#50 | 15.4%#22 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 6.9%#3 | 11.4%#63 |
| Havoc rate | 13.1%#91 | 18.3%#5 |
| Havoc allowed | 12.5%#57 | 13.4%#78 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.33#53 | 4.08#75 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.29#29 | 4.17#97 |
| Average starting field position | own 31#56 | own 36#2 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 26#15 | own 25#10 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 60.4#115 | 65.6#69 |
| Stat | Wisconsin | UCLA |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.11#55 | +0.27#3 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.10#68 | -0.03#111 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.07#25 | -0.07#21 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.20#8 | -0.21#7 |
| Rushing success rate | 34.1%#133 | 52.8%#13 |
| Passing success rate | 43.6%#59 | 38.3%#107 |
| Run stuff rate | 12.8%#16 | 11.7%#7 |
| Passing-down success rate | 29.0%#93 | 33.8%#49 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 18.6%#2 | 19.0%#3 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 47.8%#33 | 43.5%#58 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 31.5%#19 | 30.0%#11 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 53.3%#114 | 65.2%#61 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 38.5%#7 | 50.0%#40 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Wisconsin schedule · UCLA schedule · all Week 7 projections
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