Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected UCLA 33.8, Purdue 24 at Rose Bowl in Week 3. That is a solid edge: UCLA wins about 74% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 9.7 points and 57.8 combined points.
Purdue is 1-1, scoring 40 and allowing 28.5 points per game (+11.5 per game). UCLA is 2-0, scoring 36.5 and allowing 17 points per game (+19.5 per game).
UCLA's middle-of-the-pack defense (51st) should limit Purdue's below-average offense (90th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 24.6 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: UCLA's middle-of-the-pack offense (47th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 28.9 points against an average defense) against Purdue's struggling defense (123rd).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Purdue by 13 and UCLA by 32 about 80% of the time.
UCLA gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour UCLA by about 7.6. The game is on BTN.
Result: Purdue 38, UCLA 52. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 4.3 points and the total by 32.2.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Purdue / UCLA) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | UCLA -14.75 → UCLA -13.5 | 53.25 → 53 | +482.5 / -700 |
| DraftKings | UCLA -14 → UCLA -13.5 | 53.5 | +440 / -600 |
| Bovada | UCLA -15.5 → UCLA -13.5 | 53 → 52.5 | +525 / -800 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | UCLA win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | UCLA -9.5 | 57.8 | 74% |
| Market consensus | UCLA -13.5 | 53.0 | 83% |
| Blended projection | UCLA -13 | 53.8 | 81% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- UCLA win probability
- model 74% · market (no-vig) 83% · difference -10 pts
- Margin
- model UCLA -9.7 · market UCLA -13.5 · difference -3.8 pts (UCLA view)
- Total
- model 57.8 · market 53 · difference +4.8
Model margin is 3.8 pts more toward Purdue than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Purdue 24.0, UCLA 33.8 | UCLA 74%right winner | 4.3 | 32.2 |
| New formula | Purdue 20.0, UCLA 37.8 | UCLA 87%right winner | 3.9 | 32.2 |
Final: Purdue 38, UCLA 52. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Purdue vs UCLA: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Purdue | UCLA |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 40.0#40 | 36.5#47 |
| Points allowed per game | 28.5#112 | 17.0#56 |
| Yards per play | 6.36#65 | 6.91#39 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.65#119 | 4.38#27 |
| Rushing yards per game | 172.0#78 | 251.0#19 |
| Net passing yards per game | 317.5#19 | 156.5#119 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 142.0#85 | 145.5#89 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 227.0#93 | 168.0#46 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.00#17 | 1.00#95 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.50#100 | 2.00#18 |
| Sacks per game | 2.50#43 | 2.00#70 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.50#110 | 2.00#99 |
| Stat | Purdue | UCLA |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.23#13 | +0.21#14 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.12#113 | -0.14#13 |
| Success rate | 50.4%#12 | 49.2%#19 |
| Success rate allowed | 41.6%#87 | 32.2%#12 |
| Explosive play rate | 16.3%#16 | 13.6%#55 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.9%#125 | 9.1%#22 |
| Havoc rate | 14.9%#59 | 16.1%#41 |
| Havoc allowed | 11.9%#47 | 13.6%#76 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.84#97 | 4.85#25 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.36#109 | 4.43#112 |
| Average starting field position | own 36#18 | own 39#8 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 32#103 | own 23#10 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 77.0#11 | 59.0#107 |
| Stat | Purdue | UCLA |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.05#79 | +0.48#1 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.38#11 | -0.17#126 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.15#117 | -0.04#51 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.08#90 | -0.25#9 |
| Rushing success rate | 39.3%#102 | 60.9%#7 |
| Passing success rate | 59.5%#13 | 32.7%#125 |
| Run stuff rate | 15.1%#36 | 7.2%#2 |
| Passing-down success rate | 42.4%#11 | 28.6%#97 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 37.8%#124 | 20.4%#17 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 50.0%#39 | 45.5%#59 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 43.5%#103 | 43.8%#105 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 57.1%#100 | 66.7%#61 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 57.1%#62 | 50.0%#44 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Purdue schedule · UCLA schedule · all Week 3 projections
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