Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected California 29.2, UCLA 25.3 at California Memorial Stadium in Week 1. That is a lean: California wins about 60% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3.9 points and 54.5 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
UCLA has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. California has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
UCLA's middle-of-the-pack offense (44th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 29.6 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over California's below-average defense (109th); that mismatch is where most of UCLA's projected points come from. Expect California to find it hard going: UCLA's strong defense (24th) outranks California's below-average offense (100th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 23 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between UCLA by 19 and California by 26 about 80% of the time.
California gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour California by about 1.8. The game is on ESPN.
Result: UCLA 45, California 24. UCLA won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 24.9 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (UCLA / California) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | California -2.5 → UCLA -2.5 | 53.5 | -136 / +115 |
| Bovada | California -3.5 → UCLA -2.5 | 53.5 | -130 / +110 |
| DraftKings | California -1.5 → UCLA -2.5 | 53.5 | -142 / +120 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | California win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | California -4 | 54.5 | 60% |
| Market consensus | UCLA -2.5 | 53.5 | 45% |
| Blended projection | UCLA -1.5 | 54.1 | 46% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- California win probability
- model 60% · market (no-vig) 45% · difference +15 pts
- Margin
- model California -3.9 · market UCLA -2.5 · difference +6.4 pts (California view)
- Total
- model 54.5 · market 53.5 · difference +1.0
Model margin is 6.4 pts more toward California than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | UCLA 25.3, California 29.2 | California 60%wrong winner | 24.9 | 14.5 |
| New formula | UCLA 22.4, California 32.1 | California 71%wrong winner | 30.6 | 14.5 |
Final: UCLA 45, California 24. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
UCLA vs California: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | UCLA | California |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 18.2#125 | 25.3#86 |
| Points allowed per game | 33.4#127 | 27.2#83 |
| Yards per play | 5.13#123 | 5.55#97 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.02#93 | 5.62#51 |
| Rushing yards per game | 149.1#91 | 106.7#134 |
| Net passing yards per game | 159.9#121 | 280.0#16 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 188.8#108 | 167.1#78 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 198.8#41 | 201.4#43 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.83#31 | 0.77#27 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.75#108 | 0.85#96 |
| Sacks per game | 0.83#135 | 1.46#108 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.17#94 | 2.31#106 |
| Stat | UCLA | California |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.02#103 | +0.01#82 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.11#120 | +0.01#70 |
| Success rate | 41.6%#82 | 41.6%#85 |
| Success rate allowed | 49.9%#135 | 41.7%#71 |
| Explosive play rate | 10.8%#119 | 11.9%#87 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.0%#88 | 11.8%#55 |
| Havoc rate | 11.7%#91 | 12.0%#85 |
| Havoc allowed | 12.6%#88 | 11.7%#61 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.55#114 | 4.18#42 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.45#121 | 4.15#102 |
| Average starting field position | own 26#130 | own 29#81 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 31#98 | own 30#84 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 60.3#126 | 69.7#32 |
| Stat | UCLA | California |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.13#18 | -0.03#99 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.15#125 | +0.04#64 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.14#130 | +0.10#122 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.07#94 | -0.08#32 |
| Rushing success rate | 44.7%#55 | 38.7%#112 |
| Passing success rate | 38.9%#97 | 42.7%#51 |
| Run stuff rate | 18.2%#67 | 17.5%#54 |
| Passing-down success rate | 30.9%#64 | 34.0%#27 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 39.2%#136 | 25.8%#19 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 36.4%#107 | 40.7%#75 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 56.7%#136 | 41.0%#74 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 64.3%#49 | 64.9%#46 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 68.6%#118 | 61.9%#80 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: UCLA schedule · California schedule · all Week 1 projections
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