Matchup analysis
Our model projects UCLA 24, Minnesota 19 at Huntington Bank Stadium in Week 10. That is a lean: UCLA wins about 64% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 5.4 points and 42.8 combined points. Tags: upset alert, leans low scoring.
UCLA (No. 7) is 7-0 against the 42nd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 34.4 and allowing 15.3 points per game (+19.1 per game). Minnesota is 5-2 against the 75th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 26.6 and allowing 20.1 points per game (+6.5 per game).
UCLA's middle-of-the-pack offense (44th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 29.6 points against an average defense) meets Minnesota's strong defense (37th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points UCLA puts up. UCLA's strong defense (24th) should limit Minnesota's below-average offense (92nd of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 24.4 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between UCLA by 28 and Minnesota by 17 about 80% of the time.
Minnesota gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. UCLA is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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UCLA vs Minnesota: stat comparison
| Stat | UCLA | Minnesota |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 34.4#36 | 26.6#83 |
| Points allowed per game | 15.3#12 | 20.1#35 |
| Yards per play | 6.38#43 | 5.41#117 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.92#20 | 4.82#16 |
| Rushing yards per game | 239.3#10 | 107.0#135 |
| Net passing yards per game | 194.3#104 | 230.7#64 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 107.7#10 | 134.4#41 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 194.0#49 | 146.0#6 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00#93 | 1.00#82 |
| Takeaways per game | 2.43#2 | 1.29#21 |
| Sacks per game | 2.29#54 | 2.14#57 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.29#38 | 0.86#10 |
| Stat | UCLA | Minnesota |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.11#54 | -0.05#130 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.17#3 | -0.07#19 |
| Success rate | 46.7%#35 | 39.8%#113 |
| Success rate allowed | 33.3%#2 | 39.7%#48 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.7%#45 | 11.9%#91 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.1%#57 | 11.0%#48 |
| Havoc rate | 16.7%#15 | 17.7%#10 |
| Havoc allowed | 12.8%#55 | 13.6%#79 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.78#96 | 3.57#108 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.68#53 | 4.50#117 |
| Average starting field position | own 35#3 | own 34#5 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 26#14 | own 26#15 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 68.0#49 | 62.4#103 |
| Stat | UCLA | Minnesota |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.17#19 | -0.14#137 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.03#97 | +0.00#104 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.05#28 | +0.05#79 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.28#1 | -0.17#7 |
| Rushing success rate | 52.7%#3 | 36.8%#128 |
| Passing success rate | 38.7%#103 | 41.3%#74 |
| Run stuff rate | 13.3%#15 | 22.9%#134 |
| Passing-down success rate | 30.7%#75 | 22.2%#137 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 17.5%#1 | 31.3%#96 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 47.4%#27 | 35.4%#112 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 28.6%#4 | 30.1%#8 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 62.4%#68 | 59.9%#82 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 50.0%#35 | 66.4%#98 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: UCLA schedule · Minnesota schedule · all Week 10 projections
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