Matchup analysis
Our model projects USC 28, UCLA 27 at Rose Bowl in Week 13. That is a genuine toss-up: USC wins about 53% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1.3 points and 54.9 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
USC is 6-2 against the 13th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 32.8 and allowing 25 points per game (+7.8 per game). UCLA (No. 7) is 7-0 against the 29th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 34.4 and allowing 15.3 points per game (+19.1 per game).
USC's elite offense (12th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 34.8 points against an average defense) meets UCLA's strong defense (24th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points USC puts up. UCLA's middle-of-the-pack offense (44th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 29.6 points against an average defense) meets USC's strong defense (36th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points UCLA puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between USC by 24 and UCLA by 21 about 80% of the time.
UCLA gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. USC is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (USC / UCLA) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | USC -10.5 | 55.5 | -470 / +360 |
| DraftKings | USC -10.5 | 55.5 | -470 / +360 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | UCLA win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | USC -1.5 | 54.9 | 47% |
| Market consensus | USC -10.5 | 55.5 | 21% |
| Blended projection | USC -9 | 55.8 | 27% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- UCLA win probability
- model 47% · market (no-vig) 21% · difference +26 pts
- Margin
- model USC -1.3 · market USC -10.5 · difference +9.2 pts (UCLA view)
- Total
- model 54.9 · market 55.5 · difference -0.6
Model margin is 9.2 pts more toward UCLA than the market.
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USC vs UCLA: stat comparison
| Stat | USC | UCLA |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 32.8#44 | 34.4#36 |
| Points allowed per game | 25.0#77 | 15.3#12 |
| Yards per play | 6.37#45 | 6.38#43 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.81#83 | 4.92#20 |
| Rushing yards per game | 143.6#106 | 239.3#10 |
| Net passing yards per game | 301.4#9 | 194.3#104 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 123.8#26 | 107.7#10 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 212.0#83 | 194.0#49 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00#85 | 1.00#93 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.63#102 | 2.43#2 |
| Sacks per game | 1.75#91 | 2.29#54 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.38#41 | 1.29#38 |
| Stat | USC | UCLA |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.22#14 | +0.11#54 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.09#99 | -0.17#3 |
| Success rate | 50.6%#7 | 46.7%#35 |
| Success rate allowed | 40.6%#65 | 33.3%#2 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.9%#66 | 13.7%#45 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.9%#42 | 11.1%#57 |
| Havoc rate | 12.7%#103 | 16.7%#15 |
| Havoc allowed | 10.7%#20 | 12.8%#55 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.48#36 | 3.78#96 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.83#132 | 3.68#53 |
| Average starting field position | own 28#107 | own 35#3 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 28#44 | own 26#14 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 69.9#25 | 68.0#49 |
| Stat | USC | UCLA |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.04#89 | +0.17#19 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.37#6 | +0.03#97 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.02#61 | -0.05#28 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.17#114 | -0.28#1 |
| Rushing success rate | 45.7%#55 | 52.7%#3 |
| Passing success rate | 54.6%#3 | 38.7%#103 |
| Run stuff rate | 19.8%#110 | 13.3%#15 |
| Passing-down success rate | 43.4%#6 | 30.7%#75 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 32.6%#107 | 17.5%#1 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 51.0%#15 | 47.4%#27 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 35.6%#38 | 28.6%#4 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 66.7%#42 | 62.4%#68 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 66.7%#105 | 50.0%#35 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: USC schedule · UCLA schedule · all Week 13 projections
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