Matchup analysis
Our model projects UCLA 34, Nevada 14 at Rose Bowl in Week 9. That is a heavy edge: UCLA wins about 90% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 19.7 points and 47.5 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, leans low scoring.
Nevada is 3-4 against the 112th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 26.3 and allowing 22 points per game (+4.3 per game). UCLA (No. 7) is 7-0 against the 42nd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 34.4 and allowing 15.3 points per game (+19.1 per game).
UCLA's strong defense (24th) should limit Nevada's below-average offense (106th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 21.4 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: UCLA's middle-of-the-pack offense (44th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 29.6 points against an average defense) against Nevada's below-average defense (93rd).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Nevada by 3 and UCLA by 42 about 80% of the time.
UCLA gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour UCLA by about 17.6. The game is on BTN.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Nevada / UCLA) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | UCLA -22.5 | 44.5 | +976.5 / -1950 |
| DraftKings | UCLA -22.5 | 44.5 | +1000 / -1800 |
| FanDuel | UCLA -22.5 | 44.5 | +1400 / -4000 |
| BetRivers | UCLA -21.5 | 43.5 | +850 / -2000 |
| theScore Bet | UCLA -22.5 | 44.5 | +1100 / -2500 |
| BetMGM | UCLA -22.5 | 44.5 | +1200 / -2000 |
| Hard Rock Bet | UCLA -21.5 | 43.5 | +850 / -1600 |
| Pinnacle | UCLA -23 | 44.5 | +953 / -1756 |
| Bovada | UCLA -22.5 | 44.5 | +900 / -1900 |
This game's lines: The Odds API · read Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | UCLA win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | UCLA -19.5 | 47.5 | 90% |
| Market consensus | UCLA -22.5 | 44.5 | 91% |
| Blended projection | UCLA -22 | 45.9 | 93% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- UCLA win probability
- model 90% · market (no-vig) 91% · difference -1 pts
- Margin
- model UCLA -19.7 · market UCLA -22.5 · difference -2.8 pts (UCLA view)
- Total
- model 47.5 · market 44.5 · difference +3.0
Prediction exchange (Kalshi) price implies UCLA 94%.
Model margin is 2.8 pts more toward Nevada than the market.
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Nevada vs UCLA: stat comparison
| Stat | Nevada | UCLA |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 26.3#88 | 34.4#36 |
| Points allowed per game | 22.0#54 | 15.3#12 |
| Yards per play | 5.61#104 | 6.38#43 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.78#13 | 4.92#20 |
| Rushing yards per game | 190.7#44 | 239.3#10 |
| Net passing yards per game | 173.0#119 | 194.3#104 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 181.4#103 | 107.7#10 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 140.6#4 | 194.0#49 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.71#137 | 1.00#93 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.43#128 | 2.43#2 |
| Sacks per game | 2.43#42 | 2.29#54 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.29#35 | 1.29#38 |
| Stat | Nevada | UCLA |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.00#114 | +0.11#54 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.00#44 | -0.17#3 |
| Success rate | 40.4%#105 | 46.7%#35 |
| Success rate allowed | 37.6%#30 | 33.3%#2 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.0%#86 | 13.7%#45 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 9.4%#13 | 11.1%#57 |
| Havoc rate | 15.5%#32 | 16.7%#15 |
| Havoc allowed | 14.8%#108 | 12.8%#55 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.39#44 | 3.78#96 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.02#91 | 3.68#53 |
| Average starting field position | own 30#71 | own 35#3 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 32#125 | own 26#14 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 64.9#77 | 68.0#49 |
| Stat | Nevada | UCLA |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.08#73 | +0.17#19 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.08#125 | +0.03#97 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.01#47 | -0.05#28 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.01#42 | -0.28#1 |
| Rushing success rate | 47.2%#39 | 52.7%#3 |
| Passing success rate | 33.5%#131 | 38.7%#103 |
| Run stuff rate | 21.8%#128 | 13.3%#15 |
| Passing-down success rate | 31.0%#72 | 30.7%#75 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 26.2%#30 | 17.5%#1 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 40.9%#71 | 47.4%#27 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 30.2%#9 | 28.6%#4 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 59.4%#85 | 62.4%#68 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 63.2%#89 | 50.0%#35 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Nevada schedule · UCLA schedule · all Week 9 projections
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