Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Maryland 33.1, UCLA 25.3 at SECU Stadium in Week 4. That is a solid edge: Maryland wins about 70% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 7.8 points and 58.3 combined points.
UCLA is 3-0, scoring 41.7 and allowing 24 points per game (+17.7 per game). Maryland is 2-1, scoring 42 and allowing 16.3 points per game (+25.7 per game).
UCLA's middle-of-the-pack offense (44th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 29.7 points against an average defense) meets Maryland's middle-of-the-pack defense (54th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points UCLA puts up. Maryland's strong offense (34th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 30.6 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over UCLA's middle-of-the-pack defense (73rd); that mismatch is where most of Maryland's projected points come from.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between UCLA by 15 and Maryland by 30 about 80% of the time.
Maryland gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Maryland by about 5.7. The game is on BTN.
Result: UCLA 54, Maryland 3. UCLA won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 58.8 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (UCLA / Maryland) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | UCLA -1.75 → UCLA -2.5 | 54.75 → 55.75 | -133.5 / +112.5 |
| DraftKings | UCLA -1.5 → UCLA -2.5 | 51.5 → 55.5 | -142 / +120 |
| Bovada | UCLA -2 → UCLA -2.5 | 58 → 56 | -125 / +105 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Maryland win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Maryland -8 | 58.3 | 70% |
| Market consensus | UCLA -2.5 | 55.8 | 45% |
| Blended projection | UCLA -1 | 56.2 | 48% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Maryland win probability
- model 70% · market (no-vig) 45% · difference +24 pts
- Margin
- model Maryland -7.8 · market UCLA -2.5 · difference +10.3 pts (Maryland view)
- Total
- model 58.3 · market 55.75 · difference +2.5
Model margin is 10.3 pts more toward Maryland than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | UCLA 25.3, Maryland 33.1 | Maryland 70%wrong winner | 58.8 | 1.3 |
| New formula | UCLA 25.7, Maryland 33.0 | Maryland 68%wrong winner | 58.3 | 1.7 |
Final: UCLA 54, Maryland 3. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
UCLA vs Maryland: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | UCLA | Maryland |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 41.7#24 | 42.0#23 |
| Points allowed per game | 24.0#84 | 16.3#35 |
| Yards per play | 7.37#18 | 7.02#30 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.60#83 | 4.57#28 |
| Rushing yards per game | 293.7#5 | 188.7#51 |
| Net passing yards per game | 193.0#97 | 326.0#12 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 124.7#51 | 93.0#17 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 250.7#118 | 173.3#44 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.67#69 | 0.00#5 |
| Takeaways per game | 2.00#11 | 1.33#35 |
| Sacks per game | 2.00#66 | 3.67#8 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.67#87 | 1.00#41 |
| Stat | UCLA | Maryland |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.23#16 | +0.33#3 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.03#67 | -0.03#39 |
| Success rate | 49.0%#23 | 50.6%#17 |
| Success rate allowed | 38.1%#46 | 40.3%#70 |
| Explosive play rate | 16.5%#15 | 12.6%#77 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.9%#78 | 9.7%#31 |
| Havoc rate | 14.3%#65 | 15.3%#47 |
| Havoc allowed | 12.5%#63 | 10.3%#23 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.70#31 | 4.31#62 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.67#117 | 5.25#133 |
| Average starting field position | own 36#12 | own 35#17 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 23#6 | own 27#40 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 66.0#70 | 73.3#15 |
| Stat | UCLA | Maryland |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.35#1 | +0.17#25 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.07#80 | +0.41#11 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.01#74 | -0.09#26 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.03#72 | +0.03#70 |
| Rushing success rate | 62.1%#2 | 45.9%#63 |
| Passing success rate | 39.0%#100 | 53.1%#21 |
| Run stuff rate | 11.5%#11 | 17.0%#76 |
| Passing-down success rate | 36.0%#41 | 39.0%#20 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 25.0%#39 | 41.5%#132 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 58.3%#10 | 56.1%#12 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 41.5%#92 | 42.9%#99 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 70.7%#41 | 75.0%#25 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 56.6%#59 | 100.0%#136 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: UCLA schedule · Maryland schedule · all Week 4 projections
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