2026 schedule

Maryland Terrapins

2-5SOS #40

2026 season so far

Maryland is 2-5 against the 40th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 28.3 and allowing 33.3 points per game (-5 per game).

In our opponent-adjusted ratings Maryland ranks 88th of 139 FBS teams overall — 68th on offense and 95th on defense. The offense carries this team more than the defense does.

Next up: vs Illinois in Week 9. We project Maryland 26, Illinois 32 — Maryland wins 33% of the time.

Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.

Regular season

12 games

Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.

21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

vs
Hampton Pirates
1-1 · SOS #141
Win 62-0
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Maryland by 41.8
Total 53.6
DraftKings
MD -45.5
Total 56.5
Final Maryland by 62. Maryland beat the spread. 62 points — over the 56.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Maryland -45.5 · O/U 56.25 (open 56) · model vs market -3.7 pts (Maryland view)
BTN SECU Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hitBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesBlowout brewing: hit
Non-con mismatch overStudy · Strong Over: Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14: Record 429 hits, 313 misses (58% hit rate) over 742 graded gamesNon-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14: hit (n=742) · Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14
Blowout big fav vs low-total dog over2026 combo · Held up Over: Big favorite (21+) + Blowout brewing + Underdog implied <14: Record 69 hits, 37 misses (65% hit rate) over 106 graded gamesBig favorite (21+) + Blowout brewing + Underdog implied <14: hit (n=106; wk 5–7 13-1) · Big favorite (21+) + Blowout brewing + Underdog implied <14
at
UConn Huskies
1-1 · SOS #132
Win 38-14
Week 2
Our number· pregame
UConn by 2.9
Total 55.7
DraftKings
MD -11.5
Total 52.5
Final Maryland by 24. Maryland beat the spread. 52 points — under the 52.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Maryland -11.5 (open Maryland -12.5) · O/U 52.5 (open 53.5) · ML -477.5 / +355 · UConn 21% no-vig · model vs market +14.4 pts, +37 pct pts (UConn view)
CBSSN Pratt & Whitney Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesCoin flip: missedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: missed
vs
Virginia Tech Hokies
3-0 · SOS #111
Loss 26-35
Week 3
Our number· pregame
Maryland by 5.3
Total 61.5
DraftKings
VT -2.5
Total 53.5
Final Virginia Tech by 9. Virginia Tech beat the spread. 61 points — over the 53.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Virginia Tech -2.5 · O/U 53.25 (open 53.5) · ML -147.5 / +125 · Maryland 43% no-vig · model vs market +7.8 pts, +21 pct pts (Maryland view)
FS1 SECU Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: missedLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded gamesLeans high scoring: hit
Well-protected short dogShort dog · YPP + protection · 2014–25 Underdog getting 2.5 or less, better in yards per play and much better at avoiding sacks: Record 109 hits, 80 misses (58% hit rate) over 189 graded games · 2026: 9-3Short dog · YPP + protection: missed Big-yardage short dogShort dog · much better YPP · 2014–25 Underdog getting 2.5 or less, much better in yards per play: Record 218 hits, 191 misses (53% hit rate) over 409 graded games · 2026: 13-12Short dog · much better YPP: missed
vs
UCLA Bruins
4-0 · SOS #42
Loss 3-54
Week 4
Our number· pregame
Maryland by 7.8
Total 58.4
DraftKings
UCLA -2.5
Total 55.5
Final UCLA by 51. UCLA beat the spread. 57 points — over the 55.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: UCLA -2.5 (open UCLA -1.75) · O/U 55.75 (open 54.75) · ML -133.5 / +112.5 · Maryland 45% no-vig · model vs market +10.3 pts, +24 pct pts (Maryland view)
Game-time weather: Light rain, 59°F, Wind 8 mph NNW.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KCGS)
BTN SECU Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
High Scoring AlertHigh Scoring Alert: Record 13 hits, 7 misses (65% hit rate) over 20 graded gamesHigh Scoring Alert: hit
Rising-total close dogStudy · Moderate Underdog covers: Spread 7 or less and the total rose 1.5+ since the open: Record 179 hits, 115 misses (61% hit rate) over 294 graded gamesSpread 7 or less and the total rose 1.5+ since the open: missed (n=294) · Spread 7 or less and the total rose 1.5+ since the open High-total bounce-back dogStudy · Moderate Underdog covers: Total 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on): Record 320 hits, 237 misses (57% hit rate) over 557 graded gamesTotal 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on): missed (n=557) · Total 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on)
W. Knight RB · Low rush yds 75 (avg 115) · 79% · 100 ✓N. Iamaleava QB · Low rush yds 32 (avg 47) · 75% · 2 ✓A. Woods RB · Low rush yds 53 (avg 76) · 75% · 41 ✓
at
Nebraska Cornhuskers
5-0 · SOS #31
Loss 23-48
Week 5
Our number· pregame
Nebraska by 16.4
Total 54.4
DraftKings
NEB -15.5
Total 52.5
Final Nebraska by 25. Nebraska beat the spread. 71 points — over the 52.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Nebraska -15 (open Nebraska -13.25) · O/U 52.5 (open 52.75) · ML +480 / -687.5 · Nebraska 83% no-vig · model vs market +1.4 pts, +2 pct pts (Nebraska view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 78°F, Wind 7 mph WSW.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KLNK)
FS1 Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE)
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hit
Elite 118-39 (typical 62%) · I. Howard RB · Low rush yds 40 (avg 44) · 75% · 34 ✓J. Rule RB · TD threat 67% · did not playC. Durr Jr. WR · Low catches 7.5 (avg 8.8) · 66% · 7 ✓
at
#5 Ohio State Buckeyes
5-1 · SOS #19
Loss 16-45
Week 6
Our number· pregame
Ohio State by 34.6
Total 55.8
DraftKings
OSU -31.5
Total 56.5
Final Ohio State by 29. Maryland beat the spread. 61 points — over the 56.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Ohio State -31.25 (open Ohio State -34.75) · O/U 56.25 · model vs market +3.4 pts (Ohio State view)
Game-time weather: Light rain, 61°F, Wind 5 mph ESE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KOSU)
BTN Ohio Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hitBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesBlowout brewing: hit
High-total bounce-back dogStudy · Moderate Underdog covers: Total 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on): Record 320 hits, 237 misses (57% hit rate) over 557 graded gamesTotal 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on): hit (n=557) · Total 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on)
Blowout big fav vs low-total dog over2026 combo · Held up Over: Big favorite (21+) + Blowout brewing + Underdog implied <14: Record 69 hits, 37 misses (65% hit rate) over 106 graded gamesBig favorite (21+) + Blowout brewing + Underdog implied <14: hit (n=106; wk 5–7 13-1) · Big favorite (21+) + Blowout brewing + Underdog implied <14
Elite 118-39 (typical 62%) · I. Howard RB · Low rush yds 36 (avg 42) · 75% · 6 ✓J. Smith WR · TD threat 83% · 2 ✓C. Durr Jr. WR · Low rec yds 68 (avg 92) · 72% · 15 ✓
vs
Rutgers Scarlet Knights
2-4 · SOS #51
Loss 30-37
Week 7
Our number· pregame
Maryland by 4.2
Total 62.6
DraftKings
MD -5.5
Total 55.5
Final Rutgers by 7. Rutgers beat the spread. 67 points — over the 55.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Maryland -5.75 (open Maryland -4.5) · O/U 55.5 (open 58.75) · ML +175 / -209 · Maryland 65% no-vig · model vs market -1.6 pts, -4 pct pts (Maryland view)
Game-time weather: Mostly cloudy, 55°F, Wind 10 mph N.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KCGS)
BTN SECU Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded gamesLeans high scoring: hit
High-total bounce-back dogStudy · Moderate Underdog covers: Total 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on): Record 320 hits, 237 misses (57% hit rate) over 557 graded gamesTotal 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on): hit (n=557) · Total 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on)Slow-pace scoring dog vs reeling favDog 24+ pts, slow, fav lost · 2014–25 Underdog expected to score 24+, favorite lost its last game, both teams play slow: Record 81 hits, 70 misses (54% hit rate) over 151 graded games · 2026: 13-13Dog 24+ pts, slow, fav lost: hit
K. Duff WR · TD threat 65% · 2 ✓M. Washington QB · High pass yds 251 (avg 225) · 57% · 263 ✓
vs
Illinois Fighting Illini
4-3 · SOS #28
Sat, Oct 31, 4:00 PM
Week 9
Proj 26-32 · 33%
Our number
Illinois by 6
Total 58
DraftKings
ILL -2.5
Total 54.5
We're 3.5 points higher on Illinois than the book. Shown for comparison only.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Illinois -2.5 · O/U 54.5 · ML -137 / +114.5 · Maryland 45% no-vig · model vs market -3.5 pts, -12 pct pts (Maryland view)
Kickoff forecast: Partly sunny, 60°F, Wind 3 mph N, 0% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDT
FS1 SECU Stadium
Flip-flop totals underStudy · Lean Under: Underdog implied 21–28, favorite's last game went under, underdog's went over: Record 307 hits, 231 misses (57% hit rate) over 538 graded games (n=538) · Underdog implied 21–28, favorite's last game went under, underdog's went over
Unranked 3rd-down fav2026 combo · Held up Favorite wins: Neither team ranked + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats: Record 53 hits, 6 misses (90% hit rate) over 59 graded games (n=59; wk 5–7 26-3) · Neither team ranked + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats Mid-total dog vs 3rd-down-leaky fav under2026 combo · Weak Under: Underdog implied 21-27.5 + Favorite third-down rate allowed: bottom-third FBS rank + Home team points allowed: bottom-third FBS rank: Record 25 hits, 7 misses (78% hit rate) over 32 graded games (n=32; wk 5–7 11-2) · Underdog implied 21-27.5 + Favorite third-down rate allowed: bottom-third FBS rank + Home team points allowed: bottom-third FBS rank
C. Dixon WR · TD threat 70%
at
Purdue Boilermakers
3-4 · SOS #11
Sat, Nov 7, 5:30 PM
Week 10
Proj 30-32 · 44%
Our number
Purdue by 2
Total 62
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
BTN Ross-Ade Stadium
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded games
F. Ijeboi RB · TD threat 73%M. Washington QB · High pass yds 254 (avg 231) · 56%
vs
#25 Wisconsin Badgers
5-2 · SOS #22
Sat, Nov 14 · TBD
Week 11
Proj 19-28 · 28%
Our number
Wisconsin by 9
Total 47
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
SECU Stadium
ExpectedLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded games
Low Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games
T. Henry WR · Low catches 3.3 (avg 4) · 65%
at
USC Trojans
6-2 · SOS #26
Sat, Nov 21 · TBD
Week 12
Proj 22-39 · 12%
Our number
USC by 17
Total 61
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded games
Elite 93-27 (typical 60%) · D. Williams RB · Low rush yds 58 (avg 70) · 78%Elite 93-27 (typical 60%) · I. Howard RB · Low rush yds 26 (avg 32) · 78%
vs
Penn State Nittany Lions
3-4 · SOS #46
Sat, Nov 28 · TBD
Week 13
Proj 24-31 · 32%
Our number
Penn State by 7
Total 55
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
SECU Stadium
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded games
Low Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games

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Maryland Terrapins stats: basic, advanced and situational

Power rating

-3.4

87th in FBS

Adj. offense

26.5

pts vs avg defense

Adj. defense

29.9

pts allowed vs avg offense

Basic stats

Box-score numbers per game.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
Points per gameEvery point scored, every game.	28.3	74 / 138
Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game.	33.3	129 / 138
Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays).	6.08	58 / 138
Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents.	5.78	82 / 138
Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles.	139.3	111 / 138
Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage.	272.4	21 / 138
Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards.	162.9	86 / 138
Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards.	212.0	82 / 138
Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost.	0.86	57 / 138
Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries.	1.29	22 / 138
Sacks per gameSacks by this defense.	2.43	40 / 138
Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense.	1.00	15 / 138

Advanced stats

Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good.	+0.04	96 / 138
EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better.	+0.08	92 / 138
Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.	39.9%	112 / 138
Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate.	45.1%	122 / 138
Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays.	12.9%	65 / 138
Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents.	12.4%	84 / 138
Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up.	14.7%	57 / 138
Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play.	12.9%	57 / 138
Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40.	4.02	78 / 138
Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40.	4.86	133 / 138
Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average.	own 31	51 / 138
Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin.	own 30	102 / 138
Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure.	67.7	53 / 138

Situational stats

Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs.	+0.07	78 / 138
Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included.	+0.02	99 / 138
Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play.	+0.13	121 / 138
Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback.	+0.03	61 / 138
Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule.	36.7%	129 / 138
Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule.	42.0%	64 / 138
Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line.	21.2%	125 / 138
Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+.	27.4%	113 / 138
Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs.	39.5%	132 / 138
Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself.	36.5%	103 / 138
Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions.	43.5%	114 / 138
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown.	65.6%	47 / 138
Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate.	81.0%	136 / 138

Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.

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