Matchup analysis
Our model projects USC 39, Maryland 22 at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum in Week 12. That is a heavy edge: USC wins about 88% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 17.7 points and 60.8 combined points. Tags: favorite holds.
Maryland is 2-5 against the 43rd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 28.3 and allowing 33.3 points per game (-5 per game). USC is 6-2 against the 13th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 32.8 and allowing 25 points per game (+7.8 per game).
Expect Maryland to find it hard going: USC's strong defense (36th) outranks Maryland's middle-of-the-pack offense (68th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 26.5 points against an average defense). USC's elite offense (12th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 34.8 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Maryland's below-average defense (95th); that mismatch is where most of USC's projected points come from.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Maryland by 5 and USC by 40 about 80% of the time.
USC gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour USC by about 15.6.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Maryland vs USC: stat comparison
| Stat | Maryland | USC |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 28.3#74 | 32.8#44 |
| Points allowed per game | 33.3#129 | 25.0#77 |
| Yards per play | 6.08#58 | 6.37#45 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.78#82 | 5.81#83 |
| Rushing yards per game | 139.3#111 | 143.6#106 |
| Net passing yards per game | 272.4#21 | 301.4#9 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 162.9#86 | 123.8#26 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 212.0#82 | 212.0#83 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.86#57 | 1.00#85 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.29#22 | 0.63#102 |
| Sacks per game | 2.43#40 | 1.75#91 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.00#15 | 1.38#41 |
| Stat | Maryland | USC |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.04#96 | +0.22#14 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.08#92 | +0.09#99 |
| Success rate | 39.9%#112 | 50.6%#7 |
| Success rate allowed | 45.1%#122 | 40.6%#65 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.9%#65 | 12.9%#66 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.4%#84 | 10.9%#42 |
| Havoc rate | 14.7%#57 | 12.7%#103 |
| Havoc allowed | 12.9%#57 | 10.7%#20 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.02#78 | 4.48#36 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.86#133 | 4.83#132 |
| Average starting field position | own 31#51 | own 28#107 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 30#102 | own 28#44 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 67.7#53 | 69.9#25 |
| Stat | Maryland | USC |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.07#78 | +0.04#89 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.02#99 | +0.37#6 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.13#121 | +0.02#61 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.03#61 | +0.17#114 |
| Rushing success rate | 36.7%#129 | 45.7%#55 |
| Passing success rate | 42.0%#64 | 54.6%#3 |
| Run stuff rate | 21.2%#125 | 19.8%#110 |
| Passing-down success rate | 27.4%#113 | 43.4%#6 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 39.5%#132 | 32.6%#107 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 36.5%#103 | 51.0%#15 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 43.5%#114 | 35.6%#38 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 65.6%#47 | 66.7%#42 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 81.0%#136 | 66.7%#105 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Maryland schedule · USC schedule · all Week 12 projections
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