Matchup analysis
Our model projects Purdue 32, Maryland 30 at Ross-Ade Stadium in Week 10. That is a genuine toss-up: Purdue wins about 56% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2.3 points and 61.7 combined points. Tags: coin flip, leans high scoring.
Maryland is 2-5 against the 40th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 28.3 and allowing 33.3 points per game (-5 per game). Purdue is 3-4 against the 11th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 31.3 and allowing 32.3 points per game (-1 per game).
Maryland's middle-of-the-pack offense (68th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 26.5 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Purdue's below-average defense (101st); that mismatch is where most of Maryland's projected points come from. The most lopsided unit battle: Purdue's middle-of-the-pack offense (61st of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 27.5 points against an average defense) against Maryland's below-average defense (95th).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Maryland by 20 and Purdue by 25 about 80% of the time.
Purdue gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Purdue by about 0.2. The game is on BTN.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Maryland vs Purdue: stat comparison
| Stat | Maryland | Purdue |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 28.3#74 | 31.3#53 |
| Points allowed per game | 33.3#129 | 32.3#123 |
| Yards per play | 6.08#58 | 6.08#60 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.78#82 | 7.04#134 |
| Rushing yards per game | 139.3#111 | 145.0#102 |
| Net passing yards per game | 272.4#21 | 270.1#22 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 162.9#86 | 170.0#94 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 212.0#82 | 258.6#126 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.86#57 | 0.71#47 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.29#22 | 1.00#54 |
| Sacks per game | 2.43#40 | 1.14#121 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.00#15 | 2.29#101 |
| Stat | Maryland | Purdue |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.04#96 | +0.12#51 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.08#92 | +0.20#127 |
| Success rate | 39.9%#112 | 45.5%#44 |
| Success rate allowed | 45.1%#122 | 47.4%#132 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.9%#65 | 13.7%#42 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.4%#84 | 19.1%#138 |
| Havoc rate | 14.7%#57 | 12.8%#100 |
| Havoc allowed | 12.9%#57 | 14.0%#91 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.02#78 | 4.27#51 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.86#133 | 4.67#125 |
| Average starting field position | own 31#51 | own 31#41 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 30#102 | own 28#59 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 67.7#53 | 68.3#43 |
| Stat | Maryland | Purdue |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.07#78 | +0.02#101 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.02#99 | +0.21#32 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.13#121 | +0.14#124 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.03#61 | +0.26#125 |
| Rushing success rate | 36.7%#129 | 42.4%#86 |
| Passing success rate | 42.0%#64 | 48.2%#25 |
| Run stuff rate | 21.2%#125 | 16.8%#67 |
| Passing-down success rate | 27.4%#113 | 36.4%#26 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 39.5%#132 | 39.2%#130 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 36.5%#103 | 44.4%#40 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 43.5%#114 | 50.0%#132 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 65.6%#47 | 60.0%#81 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 81.0%#136 | 71.4%#122 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Maryland schedule · Purdue schedule · all Week 10 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.