Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Maryland 33.4, Rutgers 29.2 at SECU Stadium in Week 7. That is a lean: Maryland wins about 61% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 4.2 points and 62.5 combined points. Tags: upset alert, leans high scoring.
Rutgers is 1-4, scoring 30 and allowing 32.2 points per game (-2.2 per game). Maryland is 2-4, scoring 28 and allowing 32.7 points per game (-4.7 per game).
Rutgers's middle-of-the-pack offense (59th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 27.3 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Maryland's below-average defense (90th); that mismatch is where most of Rutgers's projected points come from. The most lopsided unit battle: Maryland's middle-of-the-pack offense (65th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 27.1 points against an average defense) against Rutgers's below-average defense (114th).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Rutgers by 18 and Maryland by 27 about 80% of the time.
Maryland gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Maryland by about 2.1. The game is on BTN.
Result: Rutgers 37, Maryland 30. Rutgers won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 11.2 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Rutgers / Maryland) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Maryland -4.5 → Maryland -5.75 | 58.75 → 55.5 | +175 / -209 |
| DraftKings | Maryland -4.5 → Maryland -5.5 | 58.5 → 55.5 | +180 / -218 |
| Bovada | Maryland -4.5 → Maryland -6 | 59 → 55.5 | +170 / -200 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Maryland win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Maryland -4 | 62.5 | 61% |
| Market consensus | Maryland -6 | 55.5 | 65% |
| Blended projection | Maryland -5.5 | 56.3 | 65% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Maryland win probability
- model 61% · market (no-vig) 65% · difference -4 pts
- Margin
- model Maryland -4.2 · market Maryland -5.75 · difference -1.5 pts (Maryland view)
- Total
- model 62.5 · market 55.5 · difference +7.0
Model margin is 1.5 pts more toward Rutgers than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Rutgers 29.2, Maryland 33.4 | Maryland 61%wrong winner | 11.2 | 4.5 |
| New formula | Rutgers 28.9, Maryland 33.5 | Maryland 62%wrong winner | 11.7 | 4.6 |
Final: Rutgers 37, Maryland 30. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Rutgers vs Maryland: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Rutgers | Maryland |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 30.0#66 | 28.0#76 |
| Points allowed per game | 32.2#120 | 32.7#125 |
| Yards per play | 6.49#47 | 6.11#70 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.93#131 | 5.74#84 |
| Rushing yards per game | 147.6#96 | 142.2#108 |
| Net passing yards per game | 275.8#24 | 275.2#25 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 206.6#126 | 163.7#84 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 206.4#78 | 199.7#68 |
| Turnovers per game | 2.00#138 | 1.00#78 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.80#83 | 1.33#24 |
| Sacks per game | 1.60#98 | 2.67#25 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.60#113 | 1.00#21 |
| Stat | Rutgers | Maryland |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.04#92 | +0.01#108 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.24#133 | +0.02#57 |
| Success rate | 45.4%#48 | 39.2%#117 |
| Success rate allowed | 49.0%#133 | 44.2%#105 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.7%#69 | 12.0%#94 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 17.1%#137 | 12.1%#81 |
| Havoc rate | 11.6%#114 | 15.0%#42 |
| Havoc allowed | 16.1%#128 | 11.7%#37 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.30#56 | 3.92#86 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.59#118 | 4.83#127 |
| Average starting field position | own 30#75 | own 31#54 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 31#111 | own 31#106 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 65.2#71 | 68.3#41 |
| Stat | Rutgers | Maryland |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.00#106 | +0.04#92 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.09#72 | +0.00#105 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.32#138 | +0.11#111 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.15#104 | -0.08#31 |
| Rushing success rate | 47.2%#40 | 36.0%#124 |
| Passing success rate | 43.7%#58 | 41.2%#84 |
| Run stuff rate | 18.7%#98 | 19.7%#107 |
| Passing-down success rate | 38.4%#18 | 26.2%#116 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 35.3%#117 | 37.1%#123 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 36.7%#104 | 37.3%#99 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 38.9%#81 | 39.7%#90 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 70.5%#31 | 65.4%#60 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 58.9%#72 | 86.7%#137 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Rutgers schedule · Maryland schedule · all Week 7 projections
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