Matchup analysis
Our model projects Illinois 32, Maryland 26 at SECU Stadium in Week 9. That is a lean: Illinois wins about 67% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 6.7 points and 57.8 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Illinois is 4-3 against the 28th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 30.3 and allowing 25.3 points per game (+5 per game). Maryland is 2-5 against the 40th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 28.3 and allowing 33.3 points per game (-5 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Illinois's strong offense (41st of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 29.9 points against an average defense) against Maryland's below-average defense (95th). Illinois's middle-of-the-pack defense (51st) should limit Maryland's middle-of-the-pack offense (68th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 26.5 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Illinois by 29 and Maryland by 16 about 80% of the time.
Maryland gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Illinois is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on FS1.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Illinois / Maryland) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Illinois -2.5 | 54.5 | -137 / +114.5 |
| FanDuel | Illinois -2.5 | 55.5 | -140 / +116 |
| theScore Bet | Illinois -2.5 | 55.5 | -130 / +110 |
| BetRivers | Illinois -2.5 | 54.5 | -139 / +112 |
| DraftKings | Illinois -2.5 | 54.5 | -135 / +114 |
| BetMGM | Illinois -2.5 | 54.5 | -140 / +115 |
| Hard Rock Bet | Illinois -2.5 | 54.5 | -140 / +110 |
| Pinnacle | Illinois -2.5 | 54 | -132 / +115 |
| Bovada | Illinois -2.5 | 54.5 | -135 / +115 |
This game's lines: The Odds API · read Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Maryland win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Illinois -6.5 | 57.8 | 33% |
| Market consensus | Illinois -2.5 | 54.5 | 45% |
| Blended projection | Illinois -3 | 55.1 | 41% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Maryland win probability
- model 33% · market (no-vig) 45% · difference -12 pts
- Margin
- model Illinois -6.7 · market Illinois -2.5 · difference -4.2 pts (Maryland view)
- Total
- model 57.8 · market 54.5 · difference +3.3
Prediction exchange (Kalshi) price implies Maryland 45%.
Model margin is 4.2 pts more toward Illinois than the market.
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Illinois vs Maryland: stat comparison
| Stat | Illinois | Maryland |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 30.3#58 | 28.3#74 |
| Points allowed per game | 25.3#81 | 33.3#129 |
| Yards per play | 6.67#25 | 6.08#58 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.21#110 | 5.78#82 |
| Rushing yards per game | 170.1#62 | 139.3#111 |
| Net passing yards per game | 239.7#52 | 272.4#21 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 141.7#53 | 162.9#86 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 261.1#128 | 212.0#82 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.71#46 | 0.86#57 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.57#111 | 1.29#22 |
| Sacks per game | 1.00#131 | 2.43#40 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.29#33 | 1.00#15 |
| Stat | Illinois | Maryland |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.13#48 | +0.04#96 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.18#125 | +0.08#92 |
| Success rate | 47.6%#25 | 39.9%#112 |
| Success rate allowed | 46.2%#127 | 45.1%#122 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.6%#49 | 12.9%#65 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.1%#56 | 12.4%#84 |
| Havoc rate | 10.6%#133 | 14.7%#57 |
| Havoc allowed | 10.9%#25 | 12.9%#57 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.18#56 | 4.02#78 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.62#122 | 4.86#133 |
| Average starting field position | own 29#95 | own 31#51 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 29#83 | own 30#102 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 61.4#114 | 67.7#53 |
| Stat | Illinois | Maryland |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.12#47 | +0.07#78 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.13#53 | +0.02#99 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.08#94 | +0.13#121 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.28#129 | +0.03#61 |
| Rushing success rate | 44.7%#66 | 36.7%#129 |
| Passing success rate | 50.2%#16 | 42.0%#64 |
| Run stuff rate | 12.0%#7 | 21.2%#125 |
| Passing-down success rate | 36.7%#22 | 27.4%#113 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 38.3%#129 | 39.5%#132 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 48.2%#22 | 36.5%#103 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 41.1%#96 | 43.5%#114 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 63.2%#63 | 65.6%#47 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 68.0%#112 | 81.0%#136 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Illinois schedule · Maryland schedule · all Week 9 projections
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