Matchup analysis
Our model projects Penn State 31, Maryland 24 at SECU Stadium in Week 13. That is a lean: Penn State wins about 68% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 7.1 points and 54.3 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Penn State is 3-4 against the 46th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 28.7 and allowing 18.9 points per game (+9.8 per game). Maryland is 2-5 against the 40th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 28.3 and allowing 33.3 points per game (-5 per game).
Penn State's middle-of-the-pack offense (53rd of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 28.3 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Maryland's below-average defense (95th); that mismatch is where most of Penn State's projected points come from. Expect Maryland to find it hard going: Penn State's strong defense (35th) outranks Maryland's middle-of-the-pack offense (68th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 26.5 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Penn State by 30 and Maryland by 15 about 80% of the time.
Maryland gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Penn State is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
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Penn State vs Maryland: stat comparison
| Stat | Penn State | Maryland |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 28.7#70 | 28.3#74 |
| Points allowed per game | 18.9#28 | 33.3#129 |
| Yards per play | 5.91#79 | 6.08#58 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.58#66 | 5.78#82 |
| Rushing yards per game | 133.4#114 | 139.3#111 |
| Net passing yards per game | 259.0#36 | 272.4#21 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 178.1#99 | 162.9#86 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 150.4#7 | 212.0#82 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00#84 | 0.86#57 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00#53 | 1.29#22 |
| Sacks per game | 1.29#113 | 2.43#40 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.57#53 | 1.00#15 |
| Stat | Penn State | Maryland |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.01#107 | +0.04#96 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.01#41 | +0.08#92 |
| Success rate | 40.1%#109 | 39.9%#112 |
| Success rate allowed | 40.1%#59 | 45.1%#122 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.2%#107 | 12.9%#65 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.9%#92 | 12.4%#84 |
| Havoc rate | 16.0%#23 | 14.7%#57 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.5%#76 | 12.9%#57 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.22#52 | 4.02#78 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.72#58 | 4.86#133 |
| Average starting field position | own 32#29 | own 31#51 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 26#12 | own 30#102 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 66.4#68 | 67.7#53 |
| Stat | Penn State | Maryland |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.11#134 | +0.07#78 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.12#58 | +0.02#99 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.12#112 | +0.13#121 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.14#13 | +0.03#61 |
| Rushing success rate | 37.2%#126 | 36.7%#129 |
| Passing success rate | 42.7%#61 | 42.0%#64 |
| Run stuff rate | 15.7%#41 | 21.2%#125 |
| Passing-down success rate | 30.6%#77 | 27.4%#113 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 27.6%#45 | 39.5%#132 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 35.8%#109 | 36.5%#103 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 32.2%#15 | 43.5%#114 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 57.7%#96 | 65.6%#47 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 68.4%#113 | 81.0%#136 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Penn State schedule · Maryland schedule · all Week 13 projections
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