Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected UConn 29.3, Maryland 26.4 at Pratt & Whitney Stadium in Week 2. That is a genuine toss-up: UConn wins about 58% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2.9 points and 55.6 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Maryland is 1-0, scoring 62 and allowing 0 points per game (+62 per game). UConn is 1-0, scoring 56 and allowing 7 points per game (+49 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Maryland's strong offense (37th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 30.9 points against an average defense) against UConn's below-average defense (89th). Maryland's strong defense (37th) should limit UConn's middle-of-the-pack offense (71st of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 26.1 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Maryland by 20 and UConn by 25 about 80% of the time.
UConn gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour UConn by about 0.8. The game is on CBSSN.
Result: Maryland 38, UConn 14. Maryland won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 26.9 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Maryland / UConn) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Maryland -12.5 → Maryland -11.5 | 53.5 → 52.5 | -477.5 / +355 |
| Bovada | Maryland -12.5 → Maryland -11.5 | 53.5 → 52.5 | -500 / +360 |
| DraftKings | Maryland -12.5 → Maryland -11.5 | 53.5 → 52.5 | -455 / +350 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | UConn win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | UConn -3 | 55.6 | 58% |
| Market consensus | Maryland -11.5 | 52.5 | 21% |
| Blended projection | Maryland -9 | 53.3 | 27% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- UConn win probability
- model 58% · market (no-vig) 21% · difference +37 pts
- Margin
- model UConn -2.9 · market Maryland -11.5 · difference +14.4 pts (UConn view)
- Total
- model 55.6 · market 52.5 · difference +3.1
Model margin is 14.4 pts more toward UConn than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Maryland 26.4, UConn 29.3 | UConn 58%wrong winner | 26.9 | 3.6 |
| New formula | Maryland 30.2, UConn 26.5 | Maryland 59%right winner | 20.3 | 4.7 |
Final: Maryland 38, UConn 14. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Maryland vs UConn: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Maryland | UConn |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 23.5#95 | 35.3#15 |
| Points allowed per game | 26.5#76 | 27.0#81 |
| Yards per play | 5.62#88 | 6.78#17 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.08#97 | 5.95#88 |
| Rushing yards per game | 111.7#132 | 167.5#69 |
| Net passing yards per game | 258.6#35 | 275.7#19 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 191.7#112 | 215.9#129 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 241.3#108 | 207.2#51 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.92#43 | 0.15#1 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.58#12 | 1.15#59 |
| Sacks per game | 2.00#66 | 2.69#17 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 0.75#4 | 1.15#16 |
| Stat | Maryland | UConn |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.01#93 | +0.16#11 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.04#40 | +0.07#105 |
| Success rate | 40.0%#102 | 45.4%#36 |
| Success rate allowed | 44.2%#100 | 46.1%#126 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.5%#63 | 12.5%#65 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.9%#56 | 12.6%#78 |
| Havoc rate | 13.2%#53 | 11.2%#107 |
| Havoc allowed | 10.5%#24 | 11.0%#40 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.54#116 | 4.18#41 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.75#57 | 3.97#83 |
| Average starting field position | own 30#56 | own 32#26 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 30#72 | own 26#5 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 65.8#71 | 65.4#78 |
| Stat | Maryland | UConn |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.07#115 | +0.07#46 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.03#70 | +0.24#8 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.02#82 | +0.14#131 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.11#27 | -0.00#67 |
| Rushing success rate | 39.8%#103 | 45.7%#44 |
| Passing success rate | 40.1%#84 | 46.8%#19 |
| Run stuff rate | 18.8%#81 | 16.9%#47 |
| Passing-down success rate | 36.5%#17 | 29.1%#82 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 32.6%#105 | 33.6%#116 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 40.0%#81 | 41.5%#63 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 45.2%#116 | 38.0%#45 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 35.1%#136 | 60.6%#73 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 57.4%#49 | 62.0%#83 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Maryland schedule · UConn schedule · all Week 2 projections
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