Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Nebraska 35.4, Maryland 19 at Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE) in Week 5. That is a heavy edge: Nebraska wins about 86% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 16.4 points and 54.4 combined points. Tags: favorite holds.
Maryland is 2-2, scoring 32.3 and allowing 25.8 points per game (+6.5 per game). Nebraska is 4-0, scoring 42.5 and allowing 12 points per game (+30.5 per game).
Expect Maryland to find it hard going: Nebraska's strong defense (19th) outranks Maryland's middle-of-the-pack offense (73rd of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 26 points against an average defense). Nebraska's strong offense (21st of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 33 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Maryland's below-average defense (83rd); that mismatch is where most of Nebraska's projected points come from.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Maryland by 6 and Nebraska by 39 about 80% of the time.
Nebraska gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Nebraska by about 14.3. The game is on FS1.
Result: Maryland 23, Nebraska 48. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 8.6 points and the total by 16.6.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Maryland / Nebraska) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Nebraska -13.25 → Nebraska -15 | 52.75 → 52.5 | +480 / -687.5 |
| DraftKings | Nebraska -12.5 → Nebraska -15.5 | 53.5 → 52.5 | +500 / -700 |
| Bovada | Nebraska -14 → Nebraska -14.5 | 52 → 52.5 | +460 / -675 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Nebraska win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Nebraska -16.5 | 54.4 | 86% |
| Market consensus | Nebraska -15 | 52.5 | 83% |
| Blended projection | Nebraska -15.5 | 53.2 | 85% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Nebraska win probability
- model 86% · market (no-vig) 83% · difference +2 pts
- Margin
- model Nebraska -16.4 · market Nebraska -15 · difference +1.4 pts (Nebraska view)
- Total
- model 54.4 · market 52.5 · difference +1.9
Model margin is 1.4 pts more toward Nebraska than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Maryland 19.0, Nebraska 35.4 | Nebraska 86%right winner | 8.6 | 16.6 |
| New formula | Maryland 19.3, Nebraska 35.6 | Nebraska 86%right winner | 8.6 | 16.1 |
Final: Maryland 23, Nebraska 48. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Maryland vs Nebraska: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Maryland | Nebraska |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 32.3#61 | 42.5#16 |
| Points allowed per game | 25.8#93 | 12.0#10 |
| Yards per play | 6.49#58 | 6.96#25 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.11#47 | 4.58#19 |
| Rushing yards per game | 156.3#94 | 237.3#19 |
| Net passing yards per game | 313.0#13 | 239.3#58 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 134.8#58 | 119.0#32 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 166.8#33 | 139.8#7 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00#82 | 0.25#15 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.25#35 | 1.50#21 |
| Sacks per game | 3.00#19 | 3.50#7 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.25#43 | 0.75#18 |
| Stat | Maryland | Nebraska |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.16#42 | +0.20#25 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.05#32 | -0.08#23 |
| Success rate | 45.5%#49 | 46.6%#37 |
| Success rate allowed | 39.9%#70 | 36.5%#28 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.2%#68 | 14.2%#47 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.4%#44 | 10.4%#45 |
| Havoc rate | 16.4%#27 | 16.3%#30 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.6%#83 | 10.4%#20 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.11#76 | 4.79#26 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.07#89 | 3.70#65 |
| Average starting field position | own 31#50 | own 30#67 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 30#88 | own 27#37 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 72.3#12 | 68.5#43 |
| Stat | Maryland | Nebraska |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.07#78 | +0.17#25 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.21#41 | +0.24#36 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.01#56 | -0.01#55 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.08#31 | -0.14#16 |
| Rushing success rate | 40.0%#105 | 49.6%#27 |
| Passing success rate | 48.6%#33 | 47.5%#40 |
| Run stuff rate | 22.1%#127 | 14.8%#43 |
| Passing-down success rate | 34.5%#48 | 38.9%#18 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 39.1%#130 | 21.0%#7 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 45.6%#49 | 52.9%#13 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 38.5%#72 | 29.8%#23 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 71.4%#38 | 72.6%#31 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 85.7%#131 | 62.6%#88 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Maryland schedule · Nebraska schedule · all Week 5 projections
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